If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($12,040 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $20.51.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $20.00 | 15d | +$0.34 | $0.27 to $0.43 | 68% | 53% |
| Up And Out | $20.29 | 15d | +$0.20 | $0.11 to $0.27 | 70% | 57% |
| Ss Escape | $23.29 | 36d | +$0.02 | $-0.22 to $0.07 | 82% | 78% |
| Safety Up | $24.29 | 36d | -$0.22 | $-0.51 to $-0.17 | 85% | 83% |
| Reliable Up | $21.79 | 36d | +$0.24 | $0.04 to $0.31 | 75% | 69% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.