If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.11/share ($18,041 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $21.54.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $21.00 | 24d | +$0.14 | $0.04 to $0.22 | 67% | 53% |
| Up And Out | $21.09 | 24d | +$0.09 | $-0.01 to $0.17 | 68% | 54% |
| Ss Escape | $23.09 | 45d | +$0.11 | $-0.10 to $0.18 | 77% | 70% |
| Safety Up | $24.09 | 45d | -$0.18 | $-0.45 to $-0.14 | 80% | 76% |
| Reliable Up | $22.09 | 45d | +$0.41 | $0.23 to $0.50 | 73% | 63% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.