If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.85/share ($13,851 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $28.09.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $27.50 | 14d | +$0.46 | $0.37 to $0.58 | 68% | 52% |
| Up And Out | $28.22 | 14d | +$0.16 | $0.02 to $0.25 | 72% | 61% |
| Ss Escape | $33.72 | 42d | +$0.04 | $-0.28 to $0.12 | 85% | 83% |
| Safety Up | $34.72 | 42d | -$0.09 | $-0.43 to $-0.02 | 87% | 85% |
| Reliable Up | $32.72 | 42d | +$0.21 | $-0.08 to $0.30 | 83% | 80% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.