If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.02/share ($16,586 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $31.14.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $30.50 | 15d | +$0.49 | $0.39 to $0.63 | 68% | 52% |
| Up And Out | $31.53 | 15d | +$0.08 | $-0.07 to $0.14 | 73% | 63% |
| Ss Escape | $35.03 | 36d | +$0.13 | $-0.15 to $0.21 | 81% | 77% |
| Safety Up | $38.03 | 36d | -$0.31 | $-0.67 to $-0.24 | 88% | 86% |
| Reliable Up | $34.03 | 36d | +$0.39 | $0.14 to $0.48 | 79% | 73% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.