If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.00/share ($16,276 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $30.14.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $29.50 | 15d | +$0.42 | $0.32 to $0.55 | 68% | 52% |
| Up And Out | $30.48 | 15d | +$0.02 | $-0.15 to $0.09 | 73% | 63% |
| Ss Escape | $33.98 | 36d | +$0.02 | $-0.29 to $0.08 | 81% | 78% |
| Safety Up | $35.48 | 36d | -$0.30 | $-0.67 to $-0.25 | 85% | 83% |
| Reliable Up | $32.98 | 36d | +$0.21 | $-0.07 to $0.28 | 79% | 73% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.