If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($11,175 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $26.53.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $26.00 | 14d | +$0.32 | $0.24 to $0.41 | 67% | 52% |
| Up And Out | $26.60 | 14d | +$0.05 | $-0.10 to $0.10 | 71% | 61% |
| Ss Escape | $31.10 | 42d | +$0.04 | $-0.27 to $0.07 | 85% | 82% |
| Safety Up | $32.10 | 42d | -$0.09 | $-0.43 to $-0.07 | 87% | 85% |
| Reliable Up | $30.10 | 42d | +$0.22 | $-0.06 to $0.26 | 82% | 78% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.