IBIT @ $36.16

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.8%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $312,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

15 Jul 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.09 / mid $0.10 · $450 this cycle

3.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,700

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$146

If assigned

-$312,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.35/share ($1,755 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $37.86.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	7d	+$0.13	$0.11 to $0.14	63%	51%
Ss Escape	$42.34	42d	+$0.02	$-0.10 to $0.05	87%	85%
Safety Up	$43.34	42d	-$0.09	$-0.24 to $-0.07	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$41.34	42d	+$0.18	$0.07 to $0.20	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds14%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.09 / mid $0.10 · $450 this cycle

5.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

86%

Income / mo

$1,929

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$190

If assigned

-$309,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.46/share ($2,289 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	14d	+$0.35	$0.35 to $0.45	65%	51%
Up And Out	$38.84	14d	+$0.02	$-0.04 to $0.06	73%	66%
Ss Escape	$41.84	42d	+$0.09	$-0.01 to $0.15	83%	80%
Safety Up	$42.84	42d	-$0.06	$-0.20 to $-0.02	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $313,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.25 / mid $0.26 · $1,250 this cycle

2.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$5,357

Annualized

36%

EV / cycle

+$173

If assigned

-$313,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.43/share ($2,150 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $37.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	14d	+$0.33	$0.30 to $0.36	65%	51%
Up And Out	$37.34	14d	+$0.17	$0.12 to $0.19	68%	57%
Ss Escape	$40.84	42d	+$0.04	$-0.11 to $0.01	84%	82%
Safety Up	$42.84	42d	-$0.20	$-0.42 to $-0.26	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$39.84	42d	+$0.26	$0.14 to $0.24	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $300,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds21%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.44 · $2,100 this cycle

9.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

79%

Income / mo

$1,800

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$719

If assigned

-$300,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.39/share ($6,975 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $39.95.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.50	42d	+$0.21	$0.16 to $0.26	66%	52%
Ss Escape	$39.34	42d	+$0.29	$0.24 to $0.34	66%	51%
Safety Up	$40.34	42d	-$0.17	$-0.25 to $-0.15	70%	60%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,700 (premium included).

Annualized yield 11.1% is below the 12% floor: thin premium for this position size.

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.46 / mid $0.47 · $2,300 this cycle

10.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$1,643

Annualized

11%

EV / cycle

+$949

If assigned

-$297,700

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $307,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.95 / mid $0.97 · $4,750 this cycle

3.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$4,071

Annualized

27%

EV / cycle

+$1,037

If assigned

-$307,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.24/share ($6,180 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $37.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	42d	+$0.19	$0.13 to $0.17	66%	52%
Ss Escape	$37.34	42d	+$0.27	$0.20 to $0.25	66%	50%
Safety Up	$40.34	42d	-$0.79	$-1.04 to $-0.91	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-10 11:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.