IBIT @ $36.52

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.5%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $950 this cycle

4.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$4,071

Annualized

27%

EV / cycle

+$468

If assigned

-$309,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.57/share ($2,832 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	14d	+$0.37	$0.32 to $0.44	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.48	14d	+$0.16	$0.09 to $0.21	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$41.48	42d	+$0.12	$-0.04 to $0.17	82%	79%
Safety Up	$42.48	42d	-$0.08	$-0.28 to $-0.05	86%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $307,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

15 Jul 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.07 / mid $0.08 · $350 this cycle

5.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$2,100

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$190

If assigned

-$307,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.48/share ($2,405 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.86.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	7d	+$0.16	$0.14 to $0.20	67%	51%
Ss Escape	$42.98	42d	+$0.06	$-0.05 to $0.16	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $313,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

15 Jul 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.37 / mid $0.38 · $1,850 this cycle

1.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$11,100

Annualized

74%

EV / cycle

+$389

If assigned

-$313,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.44/share ($2,180 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 2 at spot $37.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	7d	+$0.14	$0.11 to $0.13	67%	51%
Ss Escape	$40.48	35d	+$0.03	$-0.20 to $-0.03	85%	82%
Safety Up	$42.48	42d	-$0.14	$-0.42 to $-0.21	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$40.48	42d	+$0.17	$-0.03 to $0.12	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.48 · $2,350 this cycle

9.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,014

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,141

If assigned

-$297,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.53/share ($7,657 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $40.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	42d	+$0.29	$0.26 to $0.35	68%	52%
Up And Out	$40.48	42d	+$0.04	$-0.01 to $0.08	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$40.48	42d	+$0.04	$-0.01 to $0.08	70%	57%
Safety Up	$41.48	42d	-$0.40	$-0.51 to $-0.39	75%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.48 · $2,350 this cycle

9.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,014

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,141

If assigned

-$297,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.53/share ($7,657 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $40.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	42d	+$0.29	$0.26 to $0.35	68%	52%
Up And Out	$40.48	42d	+$0.04	$-0.01 to $0.08	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$40.48	42d	+$0.04	$-0.01 to $0.08	70%	57%
Safety Up	$41.48	42d	-$0.40	$-0.51 to $-0.39	75%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $1.04 / mid $1.06 · $5,200 this cycle

4.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$4,457

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,768

If assigned

-$304,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.36/share ($6,787 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $38.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	42d	+$0.26	$0.21 to $0.24	68%	52%
Up And Out	$38.48	42d	+$0.01	$-0.06 to $-0.02	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$38.48	42d	+$0.01	$-0.06 to $-0.02	70%	57%
Safety Up	$41.48	42d	-$0.96	$-1.28 to $-1.11	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-10 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.