IBIT @ $36.23

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.8%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $311,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $850 this cycle

3.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$4,250

Annualized

29%

EV / cycle

+$458

If assigned

-$311,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.49/share ($2,446 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $37.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	13d	+$0.38	$0.34 to $0.42	66%	51%
Up And Out	$38.27	13d	+$0.04	$-0.06 to $0.06	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$41.27	41d	+$0.07	$-0.10 to $0.09	84%	81%
Safety Up	$42.27	41d	-$0.10	$-0.31 to $-0.10	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$40.27	41d	+$0.30	$0.16 to $0.34	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.10 / mid $0.11 · $500 this cycle

4.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$340

If assigned

-$309,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.51/share ($2,528 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	13d	+$0.39	$0.37 to $0.50	66%	51%
Up And Out	$38.77	13d	+$0.05	$-0.03 to $0.11	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$41.77	41d	+$0.10	$-0.03 to $0.19	83%	80%
Safety Up	$42.77	41d	-$0.08	$-0.24 to $-0.00	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $313,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds30%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.29 / mid $0.29 · $1,450 this cycle

2.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

70%

Income / mo

$7,250

Annualized

49%

EV / cycle

+$560

If assigned

-$313,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.47/share ($2,365 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $37.37.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	13d	+$0.36	$0.30 to $0.39	66%	51%
Up And Out	$37.77	13d	+$0.02	$-0.09 to $0.01	74%	66%
Ss Escape	$40.77	41d	+$0.04	$-0.17 to $0.01	84%	82%
Safety Up	$41.77	34d	-$0.23	$-0.50 to $-0.29	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$39.77	41d	+$0.27	$0.10 to $0.25	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 41 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.51 · $2,500 this cycle

10.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$1,829

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,222

If assigned

-$297,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 41 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.51 · $2,500 this cycle

10.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$1,829

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,222

If assigned

-$297,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $307,250 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 34 DTE · bid $1.05 / mid $1.06 · $5,250 this cycle

3.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$4,632

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$1,606

If assigned

-$307,250

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.33/share ($6,632 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $37.91.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	41d	+$0.19	$0.11 to $0.16	67%	52%
Ss Escape	$37.27	41d	+$0.30	$0.23 to $0.28	66%	49%
Safety Up	$41.27	41d	-$1.03	$-1.38 to $-1.20	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-11 14:40 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.