IBIT @ $35.63

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-64.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $307,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 18 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.48 · $2,350 this cycle

6.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,917

Annualized

27%

EV / cycle

+$1,625

If assigned

-$307,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.34/share ($6,711 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $38.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	25d	+$0.29	$0.20 to $0.37	71%	52%
Up And Out	$38.37	25d	+$0.07	$-0.04 to $0.13	73%	56%
Ss Escape	$39.37	39d	+$0.14	$-0.05 to $0.22	76%	64%
Safety Up	$40.37	39d	-$0.26	$-0.49 to $-0.21	80%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $303,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 18 DTE · bid $0.25 / mid $0.27 · $1,250 this cycle

9.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$2,083

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$983

If assigned

-$303,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.43/share ($7,129 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $39.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	25d	+$0.31	$0.26 to $0.48	71%	52%
Up And Out	$39.37	25d	+$0.09	$0.02 to $0.23	73%	56%
Ss Escape	$40.37	39d	+$0.19	$0.07 to $0.40	76%	64%
Safety Up	$41.37	39d	-$0.21	$-0.38 to $-0.03	80%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $36 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $313,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $36 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.77 / mid $0.78 · $3,850 this cycle

2.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$10,500

Annualized

72%

EV / cycle

+$1,952

If assigned

-$313,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.99/share ($4,960 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $36.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$36.50	18d	+$0.33	$0.18 to $0.30	71%	51%
Up And Out	$36.87	18d	+$0.15	$-0.01 to $0.10	73%	57%
Ss Escape	$38.87	39d	+$0.01	$-0.30 to $-0.09	80%	73%
Safety Up	$40.87	32d	-$0.66	$-1.12 to $-0.83	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$37.87	39d	+$0.41	$0.14 to $0.34	76%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $302,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.57 / mid $0.59 · $2,850 this cycle

9.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,672

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$1,849

If assigned

-$302,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.79/share ($8,941 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $39.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	39d	+$0.26	$0.19 to $0.34	71%	52%
Up And Out	$39.37	39d	+$0.04	$-0.05 to $0.09	72%	56%
Ss Escape	$39.37	39d	+$0.04	$-0.05 to $0.09	72%	56%
Safety Up	$40.37	39d	-$0.45	$-0.58 to $-0.42	76%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.51 · $2,500 this cycle

12.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$1,923

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,698

If assigned

-$297,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $308,700 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $1.26 / mid $1.27 · $6,300 this cycle

3.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$5,906

Annualized

40%

EV / cycle

+$3,023

If assigned

-$308,700

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.58/share ($7,909 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $37.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	39d	+$0.23	$0.13 to $0.20	71%	52%
Up And Out	$37.37	39d	+$0.01	$-0.11 to $-0.04	72%	56%
Ss Escape	$37.37	39d	+$0.01	$-0.11 to $-0.04	72%	56%
Safety Up	$40.37	39d	-$1.12	$-1.47 to $-1.29	87%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-13 16:23 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.