IBIT @ $35.62

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-64.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $310,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.39 / mid $0.40 · $1,950 this cycle

5.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$5,318

Annualized

36%

EV / cycle

+$1,488

If assigned

-$310,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.06/share ($5,316 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $37.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	18d	+$0.35	$0.23 to $0.43	71%	51%
Up And Out	$37.88	18d	+$0.17	$0.06 to $0.23	74%	57%
Ss Escape	$39.88	39d	+$0.07	$-0.16 to $0.17	80%	72%
Safety Up	$40.88	39d	-$0.26	$-0.53 to $-0.18	84%	79%
Reliable Up	$38.88	39d	+$0.48	$0.28 to $0.58	76%	64%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,600 (premium included).

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.18 · $900 this cycle

8.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$2,455

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$782

If assigned

-$306,600

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.13/share ($5,668 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $38.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	18d	+$0.37	$0.30 to $0.56	71%	51%
Up And Out	$38.88	18d	+$0.19	$0.12 to $0.38	74%	57%
Ss Escape	$40.88	39d	+$0.14	$-0.01 to $0.39	79%	71%
Safety Up	$40.88	32d	-$0.10	$-0.27 to $0.13	81%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $36 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $313,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $36 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.77 / mid $0.78 · $3,850 this cycle

2.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$10,500

Annualized

72%

EV / cycle

+$2,364

If assigned

-$313,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.00/share ($4,975 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $36.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$36.50	18d	+$0.33	$0.16 to $0.29	71%	51%
Up And Out	$36.88	18d	+$0.14	$-0.02 to $0.10	74%	58%
Ss Escape	$38.88	39d	+$0.01	$-0.33 to $-0.09	80%	73%
Safety Up	$40.88	32d	-$0.67	$-1.14 to $-0.83	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$37.88	39d	+$0.41	$0.12 to $0.33	76%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $302,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.57 / mid $0.59 · $2,850 this cycle

9.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,672

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$1,856

If assigned

-$302,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.79/share ($8,974 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $39.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	39d	+$0.26	$0.19 to $0.34	71%	52%
Up And Out	$39.38	39d	+$0.03	$-0.05 to $0.09	72%	56%
Ss Escape	$39.38	39d	+$0.03	$-0.05 to $0.09	72%	56%
Safety Up	$40.38	39d	-$0.46	$-0.59 to $-0.43	76%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.51 · $2,500 this cycle

12.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$1,923

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,703

If assigned

-$297,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $308,700 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $1.26 / mid $1.27 · $6,300 this cycle

3.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$5,906

Annualized

40%

EV / cycle

+$3,040

If assigned

-$308,700

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.59/share ($7,938 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $37.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	39d	+$0.23	$0.13 to $0.20	71%	52%
Up And Out	$37.38	39d	+$0.01	$-0.11 to $-0.04	72%	56%
Ss Escape	$37.38	39d	+$0.01	$-0.11 to $-0.04	72%	56%
Safety Up	$40.38	39d	-$1.13	$-1.48 to $-1.29	87%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-13 19:33 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.