IBIT @ $36.19

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.8%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $308,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.23 · $1,150 this cycle

5.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,450

Annualized

23%

EV / cycle

+$573

If assigned

-$308,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.71/share ($3,545 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $38.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	17d	+$0.38	$0.33 to $0.44	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.31	17d	+$0.21	$0.15 to $0.27	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$41.31	45d	+$0.07	$-0.09 to $0.13	81%	77%
Safety Up	$41.81	38d	-$0.20	$-0.40 to $-0.15	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$40.81	45d	+$0.21	$0.06 to $0.29	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds14%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.15 · $750 this cycle

6.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

86%

Income / mo

$2,250

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$422

If assigned

-$306,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.73/share ($3,657 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $38.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	17d	+$0.39	$0.36 to $0.50	67%	51%
Up And Out	$39.31	17d	+$0.00	$-0.07 to $0.07	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$41.81	45d	+$0.10	$-0.04 to $0.21	81%	76%
Safety Up	$42.31	45d	-$0.02	$-0.18 to $0.08	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $312,450 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.51 / mid $0.52 · $2,550 this cycle

2.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$7,650

Annualized

51%

EV / cycle

+$885

If assigned

-$312,450

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($3,326 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $37.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	17d	+$0.35	$0.28 to $0.35	67%	51%
Up And Out	$37.31	17d	+$0.19	$0.10 to $0.16	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$40.31	45d	+$0.02	$-0.23 to $-0.06	82%	78%
Safety Up	$42.81	45d	-$0.38	$-0.72 to $-0.50	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$39.31	45d	+$0.29	$0.10 to $0.24	78%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $300,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.43 · $2,100 this cycle

9.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,032

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$994

If assigned

-$300,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.53/share ($7,668 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $39.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.50	38d	+$0.16	$0.08 to $0.24	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$40.31	45d	+$0.00	$-0.13 to $0.10	71%	59%
Safety Up	$41.31	45d	-$0.41	$-0.59 to $-0.33	75%	67%
Reliable Up	$39.81	45d	+$0.24	$0.13 to $0.35	69%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $300,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.43 · $2,100 this cycle

9.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,032

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$994

If assigned

-$300,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.53/share ($7,668 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $39.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.50	38d	+$0.16	$0.08 to $0.24	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$40.31	45d	+$0.00	$-0.13 to $0.10	71%	59%
Safety Up	$41.31	45d	-$0.41	$-0.59 to $-0.33	75%	67%
Reliable Up	$39.81	45d	+$0.24	$0.13 to $0.35	69%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $307,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $1.00 / mid $1.02 · $5,000 this cycle

3.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$4,839

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$1,601

If assigned

-$307,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.36/share ($6,795 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $37.91.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	38d	+$0.14	$0.03 to $0.10	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$37.81	45d	+$0.20	$0.04 to $0.13	69%	55%
Safety Up	$41.31	45d	-$0.94	$-1.32 to $-1.13	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-14 21:40 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.