IBIT @ $36.52

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.5%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $950 this cycle

5.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$3,167

Annualized

21%

EV / cycle

+$565

If assigned

-$306,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.70/share ($3,506 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $38.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	16d	+$0.39	$0.35 to $0.48	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.98	16d	+$0.16	$0.09 to $0.21	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$41.98	44d	+$0.09	$-0.06 to $0.17	81%	77%
Safety Up	$42.98	44d	-$0.12	$-0.31 to $-0.06	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$41.48	44d	+$0.23	$0.09 to $0.31	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.13 · $600 this cycle

6.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$2,000

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$385

If assigned

-$304,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.72/share ($3,616 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $39.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	16d	+$0.40	$0.38 to $0.51	67%	51%
Up And Out	$39.48	16d	+$0.17	$0.12 to $0.27	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$42.48	44d	+$0.12	$-0.00 to $0.27	81%	77%
Safety Up	$43.48	44d	-$0.10	$-0.26 to $0.03	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $310,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.43 · $2,150 this cycle

2.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$7,167

Annualized

48%

EV / cycle

+$915

If assigned

-$310,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.66/share ($3,289 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $37.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	16d	+$0.37	$0.30 to $0.38	67%	51%
Up And Out	$37.98	16d	+$0.14	$0.04 to $0.13	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$40.98	44d	+$0.04	$-0.19 to $0.00	82%	78%
Safety Up	$43.98	44d	-$0.40	$-0.73 to $-0.47	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$40.48	44d	+$0.17	$-0.04 to $0.14	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.42 · $2,050 this cycle

9.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,050

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,076

If assigned

-$297,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.47/share ($7,344 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $40.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	37d	+$0.28	$0.24 to $0.37	68%	52%
Up And Out	$40.48	37d	+$0.02	$-0.04 to $0.09	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$40.98	44d	+$0.06	$-0.04 to $0.16	72%	61%
Safety Up	$41.98	44d	-$0.33	$-0.48 to $-0.24	76%	68%
Reliable Up	$40.48	44d	+$0.29	$0.21 to $0.41	70%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.42 · $2,050 this cycle

9.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,050

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,076

If assigned

-$297,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.47/share ($7,344 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $40.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	37d	+$0.28	$0.24 to $0.37	68%	52%
Up And Out	$40.48	37d	+$0.02	$-0.04 to $0.09	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$40.98	44d	+$0.06	$-0.04 to $0.16	72%	61%
Safety Up	$41.98	44d	-$0.33	$-0.48 to $-0.24	76%	68%
Reliable Up	$40.48	44d	+$0.29	$0.21 to $0.41	70%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $305,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.97 / mid $0.97 · $4,850 this cycle

4.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$4,850

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$1,726

If assigned

-$305,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.31/share ($6,526 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $38.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	37d	+$0.24	$0.18 to $0.23	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$38.98	44d	+$0.00	$-0.14 to $-0.06	72%	61%
Safety Up	$42.48	44d	-$0.96	$-1.36 to $-1.14	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$38.48	44d	+$0.23	$0.10 to $0.19	70%	57%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-15 03:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.