IBIT @ $37.03

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.0%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.17 · $850 this cycle

5.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$2,833

Annualized

19%

EV / cycle

+$439

If assigned

-$304,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($3,339 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $39.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	16d	+$0.39	$0.34 to $0.47	66%	51%
Up And Out	$39.47	16d	+$0.16	$0.08 to $0.21	69%	58%
Ss Escape	$41.97	37d	+$0.07	$-0.08 to $0.14	81%	76%
Safety Up	$42.97	37d	-$0.16	$-0.34 to $-0.10	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$41.97	44d	+$0.25	$0.11 to $0.33	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $301,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.11 / mid $0.11 · $550 this cycle

6.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$1,833

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$313

If assigned

-$301,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($3,444 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $39.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.50	16d	+$0.40	$0.37 to $0.50	66%	51%
Up And Out	$39.97	16d	+$0.17	$0.11 to $0.26	69%	58%
Ss Escape	$43.47	44d	+$0.03	$-0.10 to $0.16	82%	79%
Reliable Up	$42.47	44d	+$0.28	$0.18 to $0.43	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $308,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.39 / mid $0.40 · $1,950 this cycle

2.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$6,500

Annualized

43%

EV / cycle

+$687

If assigned

-$308,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($3,133 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	16d	+$0.37	$0.30 to $0.38	66%	51%
Up And Out	$38.47	16d	+$0.14	$0.03 to $0.12	69%	58%
Ss Escape	$40.97	37d	+$0.02	$-0.19 to $-0.02	81%	77%
Safety Up	$43.97	44d	-$0.32	$-0.64 to $-0.39	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$40.97	44d	+$0.18	$-0.02 to $0.15	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $41 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $292,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds21%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $41 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 44 DTE · bid $0.57 / mid $0.58 · $2,850 this cycle

10.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

79%

Income / mo

$1,943

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,276

If assigned

-$292,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $41 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $292,800 (premium included).

Annualized yield 11.7% is below the 12% floor: thin premium for this position size.

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $41 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $2,200 this cycle

10.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$1,784

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,072

If assigned

-$292,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.64/share ($8,223 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $41.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.00	44d	+$0.25	$0.21 to $0.32	68%	52%
Up And Out	$41.47	44d	+$0.01	$-0.05 to $0.06	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$41.47	44d	+$0.01	$-0.05 to $0.06	69%	56%
Safety Up	$42.47	44d	-$0.42	$-0.53 to $-0.39	73%	64%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $302,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.94 / mid $0.95 · $4,700 this cycle

4.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$4,700

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$1,542

If assigned

-$302,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.30/share ($6,517 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $38.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	37d	+$0.20	$0.12 to $0.18	67%	52%
Ss Escape	$38.97	44d	+$0.20	$0.07 to $0.16	70%	57%
Safety Up	$42.47	44d	-$0.88	$-1.25 to $-1.04	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-15 21:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.