IBIT @ $37.58

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-62.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $301,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.27 / mid $0.28 · $1,350 this cycle

5.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$4,050

Annualized

26%

EV / cycle

+$674

If assigned

-$301,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($3,736 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $39.93.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.50	17d	+$0.39	$0.34 to $0.46	67%	51%
Up And Out	$39.92	17d	+$0.18	$0.11 to $0.24	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$41.92	31d	+$0.00	$-0.16 to $0.07	79%	74%
Safety Up	$43.92	38d	-$0.26	$-0.49 to $-0.21	86%	83%
Reliable Up	$41.92	41d	+$0.27	$0.13 to $0.36	78%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $296,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $650 this cycle

7.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$1,950

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$386

If assigned

-$296,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.79/share ($3,963 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 7 at spot $40.93.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.50	17d	+$0.41	$0.40 to $0.54	67%	51%
Up And Out	$41.42	17d	+$0.00	$-0.06 to $0.10	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$43.92	41d	+$0.04	$-0.08 to $0.19	80%	76%
Reliable Up	$42.92	41d	+$0.34	$0.27 to $0.52	77%	70%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.53 / mid $0.54 · $2,650 this cycle

2.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$7,950

Annualized

51%

EV / cycle

+$949

If assigned

-$304,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.70/share ($3,514 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	17d	+$0.37	$0.29 to $0.36	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.92	17d	+$0.16	$0.06 to $0.13	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$40.92	38d	+$0.14	$-0.07 to $0.08	78%	72%
Safety Up	$44.92	41d	-$0.46	$-0.82 to $-0.58	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$40.92	41d	+$0.21	$0.01 to $0.16	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $42 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $290,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $42 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.41 · $2,000 this cycle

10.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$1,935

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,038

If assigned

-$290,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.52/share ($7,618 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $41.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.50	38d	+$0.29	$0.25 to $0.39	68%	52%
Up And Out	$41.92	38d	+$0.07	$0.01 to $0.15	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$41.92	38d	+$0.07	$0.01 to $0.15	70%	56%
Safety Up	$42.92	38d	-$0.37	$-0.47 to $-0.32	74%	65%
Reliable Up	$41.92	41d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.27	69%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $42 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $290,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $42 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.41 · $2,000 this cycle

10.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$1,935

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,038

If assigned

-$290,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.52/share ($7,618 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $41.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.50	38d	+$0.29	$0.25 to $0.39	68%	52%
Up And Out	$41.92	38d	+$0.07	$0.01 to $0.15	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$41.92	38d	+$0.07	$0.01 to $0.15	70%	56%
Safety Up	$42.92	38d	-$0.37	$-0.47 to $-0.32	74%	65%
Reliable Up	$41.92	41d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.27	69%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $299,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $1.04 / mid $1.05 · $5,200 this cycle

3.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$5,032

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$1,722

If assigned

-$299,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.32/share ($6,593 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $39.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	38d	+$0.25	$0.18 to $0.23	68%	52%
Up And Out	$39.42	38d	+$0.03	$-0.05 to $-0.00	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$39.42	38d	+$0.03	$-0.05 to $-0.00	70%	56%
Safety Up	$43.42	41d	-$1.01	$-1.39 to $-1.18	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$39.42	41d	+$0.12	$0.01 to $0.07	69%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-21 21:45 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.