IBIT @ $37.62

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-62.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $299,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.17 · $850 this cycle

6.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$2,833

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$453

If assigned

-$299,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($3,742 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $40.45.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	16d	+$0.43	$0.41 to $0.54	67%	51%
Up And Out	$40.88	16d	+$0.04	$-0.04 to $0.11	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$43.38	37d	+$0.01	$-0.15 to $0.11	82%	77%
Safety Up	$44.38	40d	-$0.14	$-0.33 to $-0.04	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$42.38	40d	+$0.35	$0.24 to $0.48	77%	70%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $296,900 (premium included).

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.12 · $600 this cycle

7.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$2,000

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$380

If assigned

-$296,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.77/share ($3,851 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $40.95.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.50	16d	+$0.44	$0.43 to $0.60	67%	51%
Up And Out	$41.38	16d	+$0.05	$0.00 to $0.16	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$43.88	37d	+$0.04	$-0.07 to $0.20	81%	77%
Safety Up	$44.88	40d	-$0.12	$-0.25 to $0.04	84%	81%
Reliable Up	$43.88	40d	+$0.10	$-0.00 to $0.26	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,900 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.52 / mid $0.53 · $2,600 this cycle

2.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$8,667

Annualized

56%

EV / cycle

+$837

If assigned

-$304,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.68/share ($3,423 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.93.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	16d	+$0.39	$0.33 to $0.40	67%	51%
Up And Out	$39.38	16d	+$0.00	$-0.11 to $-0.03	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$40.88	30d	+$0.02	$-0.19 to $-0.04	80%	74%
Safety Up	$43.88	37d	-$0.37	$-0.70 to $-0.47	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$40.88	40d	+$0.26	$0.06 to $0.21	78%	72%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $42 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $290,450 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $42 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.41 · $2,050 this cycle

10.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,050

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,111

If assigned

-$290,450

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.52/share ($7,588 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $41.97.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.50	37d	+$0.27	$0.23 to $0.37	68%	52%
Up And Out	$41.88	37d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.15	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$41.88	37d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.15	69%	56%
Safety Up	$42.88	37d	-$0.32	$-0.42 to $-0.28	74%	64%
Reliable Up	$41.88	40d	+$0.19	$0.12 to $0.30	69%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $42 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $290,450 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $42 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.41 / mid $0.41 · $2,050 this cycle

10.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,050

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,111

If assigned

-$290,450

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.52/share ($7,588 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $41.97.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.50	37d	+$0.27	$0.23 to $0.37	68%	52%
Up And Out	$41.88	37d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.15	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$41.88	37d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.15	69%	56%
Safety Up	$42.88	37d	-$0.32	$-0.42 to $-0.28	74%	64%
Reliable Up	$41.88	40d	+$0.19	$0.12 to $0.30	69%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $299,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $1.07 / mid $1.08 · $5,350 this cycle

3.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$5,350

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$1,850

If assigned

-$299,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.31/share ($6,570 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $39.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	37d	+$0.24	$0.16 to $0.22	67%	52%
Up And Out	$39.38	37d	+$0.04	$-0.05 to $0.01	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$39.38	37d	+$0.04	$-0.05 to $0.01	69%	56%
Safety Up	$43.38	37d	-$1.05	$-1.43 to $-1.22	89%	88%
Reliable Up	$39.38	40d	+$0.14	$0.04 to $0.11	69%	56%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-22 03:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.