IBIT @ $36.86

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.1%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.17 · $850 this cycle

5.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$3,188

Annualized

21%

EV / cycle

+$440

If assigned

-$304,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($3,328 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $39.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	15d	+$0.44	$0.41 to $0.53	67%	51%
Up And Out	$39.64	15d	+$0.15	$0.09 to $0.21	71%	61%
Ss Escape	$42.64	43d	+$0.08	$-0.07 to $0.17	82%	78%
Safety Up	$43.64	43d	-$0.13	$-0.31 to $-0.06	85%	83%
Reliable Up	$42.14	43d	+$0.20	$0.07 to $0.30	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $301,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.11 / mid $0.11 · $550 this cycle

7.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$2,062

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$315

If assigned

-$301,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($3,428 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $39.96.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.50	15d	+$0.45	$0.44 to $0.57	67%	51%
Up And Out	$40.14	15d	+$0.16	$0.11 to $0.25	71%	60%
Ss Escape	$43.14	43d	+$0.11	$-0.02 to $0.24	81%	77%
Safety Up	$44.14	43d	-$0.11	$-0.27 to $0.00	85%	82%
Reliable Up	$42.64	43d	+$0.23	$0.11 to $0.36	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.53 / mid $0.54 · $2,650 this cycle

1.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$9,938

Annualized

66%

EV / cycle

+$736

If assigned

-$309,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($3,038 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $37.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	15d	+$0.40	$0.33 to $0.40	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.14	15d	+$0.11	$0.00 to $0.07	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$40.64	39d	+$0.04	$-0.20 to $-0.04	82%	78%
Safety Up	$43.64	39d	-$0.39	$-0.77 to $-0.52	91%	91%
Reliable Up	$39.64	39d	+$0.32	$0.13 to $0.26	77%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $41 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $292,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $41 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $2,200 this cycle

11.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$1,833

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,103

If assigned

-$292,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.66/share ($8,303 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $41.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.00	39d	+$0.09	$0.07 to $0.14	68%	52%
Up And Out	$41.14	39d	+$0.02	$-0.02 to $0.06	68%	53%
Ss Escape	$41.14	39d	+$0.02	$-0.02 to $0.06	68%	53%
Safety Up	$42.14	39d	-$0.44	$-0.52 to $-0.43	73%	63%
Reliable Up	$41.14	43d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.24	68%	53%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $41 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $292,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $41 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $2,200 this cycle

11.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$1,833

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,103

If assigned

-$292,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.66/share ($8,303 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $41.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.00	39d	+$0.09	$0.07 to $0.14	68%	52%
Up And Out	$41.14	39d	+$0.02	$-0.02 to $0.06	68%	53%
Ss Escape	$41.14	39d	+$0.02	$-0.02 to $0.06	68%	53%
Safety Up	$42.14	39d	-$0.44	$-0.52 to $-0.43	73%	63%
Reliable Up	$41.14	43d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.24	68%	53%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $302,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $1.08 / mid $1.10 · $5,400 this cycle

4.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$4,500

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,802

If assigned

-$302,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.44/share ($7,185 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $38.95.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	39d	+$0.08	$0.04 to $0.07	68%	52%
Up And Out	$38.64	39d	+$0.00	$-0.04 to $-0.01	68%	53%
Ss Escape	$38.64	39d	+$0.00	$-0.04 to $-0.01	68%	53%
Safety Up	$42.14	43d	-$1.03	$-1.37 to $-1.18	85%	83%
Reliable Up	$38.64	43d	+$0.13	$0.05 to $0.10	68%	53%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-23 21:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.