IBIT @ $36.70

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.3%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $1,000 this cycle

4.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$4,286

Annualized

28%

EV / cycle

+$606

If assigned

-$306,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.65/share ($3,257 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	14d	+$0.44	$0.39 to $0.52	68%	51%
Up And Out	$39.30	14d	+$0.07	$-0.02 to $0.12	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$42.30	42d	+$0.01	$-0.17 to $0.07	83%	80%
Safety Up	$43.30	42d	-$0.19	$-0.41 to $-0.14	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$41.80	42d	+$0.13	$-0.03 to $0.21	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $650 this cycle

6.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$2,786

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$451

If assigned

-$304,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($3,357 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $39.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	14d	+$0.45	$0.43 to $0.60	68%	51%
Up And Out	$39.80	14d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.17	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$42.80	42d	+$0.04	$-0.10 to $0.16	83%	79%
Safety Up	$43.30	38d	-$0.13	$-0.28 to $-0.02	85%	83%
Reliable Up	$42.30	42d	+$0.16	$0.04 to $0.29	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $310,200 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.46 / mid $0.46 · $2,300 this cycle

2.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$9,857

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$946

If assigned

-$310,200

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($3,061 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $37.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	14d	+$0.41	$0.34 to $0.43	68%	51%
Up And Out	$38.30	14d	+$0.04	$-0.08 to $0.02	74%	65%
Ss Escape	$40.80	38d	+$0.00	$-0.24 to $-0.05	83%	79%
Safety Up	$43.30	42d	-$0.32	$-0.64 to $-0.39	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$39.80	42d	+$0.35	$0.15 to $0.32	78%	71%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $294,700 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.56 / mid $0.59 · $2,800 this cycle

10.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,000

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,353

If assigned

-$294,700

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $41 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $292,900 (premium included).

Annualized yield 11.0% is below the 12% floor: thin premium for this position size.

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $41 CALL

31 Aug 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.42 / mid $0.43 · $2,100 this cycle

11.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$1,658

Annualized

11%

EV / cycle

+$1,142

If assigned

-$292,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.72/share ($8,612 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 21 at spot $41.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$41.00	42d	+$0.13	$0.10 to $0.19	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$40.80	42d	+$0.24	$0.21 to $0.31	67%	50%
Safety Up	$41.80	42d	-$0.26	$-0.33 to $-0.23	71%	59%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $304,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $1.19 / mid $1.21 · $5,950 this cycle

3.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$5,100

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$2,011

If assigned

-$304,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.40/share ($7,024 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $38.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	38d	+$0.08	$0.04 to $0.06	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$38.30	42d	+$0.05	$-0.04 to $0.01	69%	55%
Safety Up	$42.30	42d	-$1.14	$-1.56 to $-1.36	89%	88%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-24 03:31 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.