IBIT @ $36.36

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.6%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.18 / mid $0.18 · $900 this cycle

4.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,857

Annualized

26%

EV / cycle

+$454

If assigned

-$309,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($2,906 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $38.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	14d	+$0.43	$0.40 to $0.49	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.64	14d	+$0.12	$0.05 to $0.17	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$41.64	42d	+$0.05	$-0.13 to $0.09	82%	79%
Safety Up	$42.64	42d	-$0.14	$-0.37 to $-0.12	86%	84%
Reliable Up	$41.14	42d	+$0.18	$0.02 to $0.23	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds12%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.11 / mid $0.12 · $550 this cycle

5.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

88%

Income / mo

$2,357

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$315

If assigned

-$306,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($2,998 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $38.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	14d	+$0.44	$0.42 to $0.56	67%	51%
Up And Out	$39.14	14d	+$0.13	$0.08 to $0.20	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$42.14	38d	+$0.01	$-0.14 to $0.11	83%	80%
Reliable Up	$42.14	42d	+$0.08	$-0.06 to $0.18	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $312,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

31 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $2,200 this cycle

1.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$9,429

Annualized

63%

EV / cycle

+$690

If assigned

-$312,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.55/share ($2,726 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $37.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	14d	+$0.40	$0.34 to $0.41	67%	51%
Up And Out	$37.64	14d	+$0.10	$-0.01 to $0.07	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$40.64	42d	+$0.00	$-0.25 to $-0.06	83%	80%
Safety Up	$42.64	42d	-$0.30	$-0.63 to $-0.39	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$39.64	42d	+$0.25	$0.05 to $0.21	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

31 Aug 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.49 / mid $0.50 · $2,450 this cycle

10.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$1,934

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,200

If assigned

-$297,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.62/share ($8,093 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $40.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	42d	+$0.11	$0.07 to $0.15	68%	52%
Up And Out	$40.14	42d	+$0.04	$-0.00 to $0.07	68%	53%
Ss Escape	$40.14	42d	+$0.04	$-0.00 to $0.07	68%	53%
Safety Up	$41.14	42d	-$0.42	$-0.52 to $-0.41	73%	63%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.45 / mid $0.46 · $2,250 this cycle

10.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$1,929

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,108

If assigned

-$297,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.55/share ($7,742 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $40.46.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	38d	+$0.11	$0.09 to $0.14	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$40.14	42d	+$0.17	$0.11 to $0.22	68%	53%
Safety Up	$41.14	42d	-$0.30	$-0.40 to $-0.27	73%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $305,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.99 / mid $1.00 · $4,950 this cycle

4.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$4,243

Annualized

28%

EV / cycle

+$1,732

If assigned

-$305,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.37/share ($6,868 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $38.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	38d	+$0.10	$0.06 to $0.09	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$38.14	42d	+$0.14	$0.06 to $0.12	68%	53%
Safety Up	$41.14	42d	-$0.91	$-1.21 to $-1.04	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-24 21:43 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.