IBIT @ $35.83

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-64.2%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $850 this cycle

6.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$2,550

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$457

If assigned

-$309,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($3,677 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $38.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	17d	+$0.38	$0.35 to $0.48	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.67	17d	+$0.05	$-0.03 to $0.11	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$40.67	38d	+$0.05	$-0.10 to $0.14	79%	74%
Safety Up	$41.17	34d	-$0.17	$-0.34 to $-0.10	83%	79%
Reliable Up	$40.17	38d	+$0.21	$0.09 to $0.31	77%	70%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $850 this cycle

6.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$2,550

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$457

If assigned

-$309,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($3,677 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $38.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	17d	+$0.38	$0.35 to $0.48	67%	51%
Up And Out	$38.67	17d	+$0.05	$-0.03 to $0.11	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$40.67	38d	+$0.05	$-0.10 to $0.14	79%	74%
Safety Up	$41.17	34d	-$0.17	$-0.34 to $-0.10	83%	79%
Reliable Up	$40.17	38d	+$0.21	$0.09 to $0.31	77%	70%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $36 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $314,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $36 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.57 / mid $0.58 · $2,850 this cycle

1.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$8,550

Annualized

58%

EV / cycle

+$876

If assigned

-$314,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($3,344 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $36.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$36.50	17d	+$0.34	$0.27 to $0.33	67%	51%
Up And Out	$37.17	17d	+$0.02	$-0.10 to $-0.03	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$38.67	34d	+$0.03	$-0.17 to $-0.04	79%	74%
Safety Up	$41.67	38d	-$0.45	$-0.81 to $-0.59	90%	90%
Reliable Up	$38.17	38d	+$0.30	$0.12 to $0.24	75%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $302,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $2,200 this cycle

8.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,129

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,086

If assigned

-$302,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.39/share ($6,972 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 15 at spot $39.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	34d	+$0.10	$0.07 to $0.13	68%	52%
Up And Out	$39.17	34d	+$0.00	$-0.03 to $0.02	69%	54%
Ss Escape	$39.17	34d	+$0.00	$-0.03 to $0.02	69%	54%
Safety Up	$40.17	38d	-$0.29	$-0.39 to $-0.28	73%	64%
Reliable Up	$39.17	38d	+$0.17	$0.11 to $0.21	68%	54%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $300,200 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.46 / mid $0.49 · $2,300 this cycle

10.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$1,816

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,051

If assigned

-$300,200

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $309,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

28 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $1.03 / mid $1.04 · $5,150 this cycle

3.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$4,984

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$1,639

If assigned

-$309,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.23/share ($6,162 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $37.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	34d	+$0.09	$0.05 to $0.07	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$37.17	38d	+$0.14	$0.06 to $0.11	68%	54%
Safety Up	$41.17	38d	-$1.02	$-1.43 to $-1.22	90%	89%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-28 21:37 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.