IBIT @ $36.56

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.11 / mid $0.11 · $550 this cycle

5.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$2,062

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$139

If assigned

-$306,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.48/share ($2,424 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $38.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	15d	+$0.34	$0.33 to $0.41	64%	51%
Up And Out	$38.94	15d	+$0.16	$0.12 to $0.21	67%	58%
Ss Escape	$42.44	43d	+$0.02	$-0.11 to $0.06	82%	80%
Safety Up	$42.94	43d	-$0.06	$-0.20 to $-0.03	84%	82%
Reliable Up	$41.94	43d	+$0.10	$-0.01 to $0.14	80%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.11 / mid $0.11 · $550 this cycle

5.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$2,062

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$139

If assigned

-$306,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.48/share ($2,424 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $38.94.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	15d	+$0.34	$0.33 to $0.41	64%	51%
Up And Out	$38.94	15d	+$0.16	$0.12 to $0.21	67%	58%
Ss Escape	$42.44	43d	+$0.02	$-0.11 to $0.06	82%	80%
Safety Up	$42.94	43d	-$0.06	$-0.20 to $-0.03	84%	82%
Reliable Up	$41.94	43d	+$0.10	$-0.01 to $0.14	80%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $311,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.27 / mid $0.29 · $1,350 this cycle

2.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$5,063

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$36

If assigned

-$311,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.46/share ($2,279 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $37.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	15d	+$0.32	$0.29 to $0.35	64%	51%
Up And Out	$37.94	15d	+$0.14	$0.08 to $0.14	67%	58%
Ss Escape	$40.94	43d	+$0.06	$-0.11 to $0.03	81%	78%
Safety Up	$42.44	36d	-$0.26	$-0.49 to $-0.31	89%	88%
Reliable Up	$39.94	36d	+$0.15	$0.02 to $0.13	78%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $300,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds24%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.49 / mid $0.52 · $2,450 this cycle

8.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

76%

Income / mo

$2,042

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$693

If assigned

-$300,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.31/share ($6,545 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $39.92.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.50	43d	+$0.13	$0.07 to $0.16	65%	52%
Ss Escape	$39.44	43d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.19	65%	52%
Safety Up	$40.94	43d	-$0.43	$-0.57 to $-0.44	72%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $298,350 (premium included).

Annualized yield 10.3% is below the 12% floor: thin premium for this position size.

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

31 Aug 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.33 / mid $0.34 · $1,650 this cycle

9.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$1,547

Annualized

10%

EV / cycle

+$571

If assigned

-$298,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.19/share ($5,950 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $40.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	36d	+$0.16	$0.14 to $0.19	65%	52%
Ss Escape	$40.44	43d	+$0.15	$0.09 to $0.22	67%	56%
Safety Up	$41.44	43d	-$0.22	$-0.32 to $-0.16	72%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $305,600 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.88 / mid $0.92 · $4,400 this cycle

3.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$3,667

Annualized

24%

EV / cycle

+$749

If assigned

-$305,600

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.20/share ($5,979 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $38.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.00	43d	+$0.12	$0.04 to $0.10	65%	52%
Ss Escape	$37.94	43d	+$0.15	$0.07 to $0.13	65%	51%
Safety Up	$41.44	43d	-$0.87	$-1.19 to $-1.01	84%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-30 19:16 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.