IBIT @ $36.21

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-63.8%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $306,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 17 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.31 · $1,500 this cycle

6.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,647

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$797

If assigned

-$306,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.93/share ($4,634 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $38.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$38.50	24d	+$0.32	$0.28 to $0.38	67%	52%
Up And Out	$38.79	24d	+$0.17	$0.11 to $0.23	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$40.29	38d	+$0.02	$-0.12 to $0.08	76%	69%
Safety Up	$41.29	45d	-$0.06	$-0.23 to $-0.00	80%	75%
Reliable Up	$40.29	45d	+$0.26	$0.13 to $0.35	76%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $39 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $303,900 (premium included).

Called-away odds14%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $39 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 17 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.23 · $1,100 this cycle

7.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

86%

Income / mo

$1,941

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$661

If assigned

-$303,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.96/share ($4,783 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $39.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$39.00	24d	+$0.33	$0.29 to $0.42	67%	52%
Up And Out	$39.29	24d	+$0.18	$0.13 to $0.26	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$40.79	38d	+$0.04	$-0.08 to $0.16	76%	68%
Safety Up	$41.79	45d	-$0.04	$-0.19 to $0.08	80%	74%
Reliable Up	$40.79	45d	+$0.29	$0.19 to $0.42	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $37 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $312,600 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $37 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.48 / mid $0.49 · $2,400 this cycle

2.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$7,200

Annualized

48%

EV / cycle

+$938

If assigned

-$312,600

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($3,216 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $37.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.00	17d	+$0.34	$0.27 to $0.34	67%	51%
Up And Out	$37.29	17d	+$0.19	$0.11 to $0.17	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$39.79	45d	+$0.14	$-0.07 to $0.07	80%	75%
Safety Up	$42.79	45d	-$0.37	$-0.70 to $-0.48	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$38.79	45d	+$0.46	$0.29 to $0.41	76%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $297,200 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

18 Sep 2026 · 45 DTE · bid $0.56 / mid $0.57 · $2,800 this cycle

10.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$1,867

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,424

If assigned

-$297,200

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $40 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $298,300 (premium included).

Annualized yield 11.1% is below the 12% floor: thin premium for this position size.

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $40 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.34 / mid $0.34 · $1,700 this cycle

10.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$1,645

Annualized

11%

EV / cycle

+$684

If assigned

-$298,300

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.41/share ($7,068 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $40.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$40.00	38d	+$0.24	$0.19 to $0.31	67%	52%
Up And Out	$40.29	38d	+$0.10	$0.07 to $0.18	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$40.79	45d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.27	71%	59%
Safety Up	$41.79	45d	-$0.25	$-0.35 to $-0.17	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $38 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $307,700 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $38 CALL

4 Sep 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.96 / mid $0.97 · $4,800 this cycle

3.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$4,645

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$1,161

If assigned

-$307,700

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.22/share ($6,086 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $37.91.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$37.50	38d	+$0.20	$0.13 to $0.18	67%	52%
Up And Out	$37.79	38d	+$0.06	$-0.01 to $0.03	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$38.29	45d	+$0.08	$-0.03 to $0.03	72%	60%
Safety Up	$42.29	45d	-$0.95	$-1.32 to $-1.14	90%	89%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-08-04 03:32 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.