IBIT @ $43.54

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-56.5%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $268,250 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

18 Sep 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.35 / mid $0.35 · $1,750 this cycle

5.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$6,562

Annualized

37%

EV / cycle

+$891

If assigned

-$268,250

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.96/share ($4,789 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $46.58.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$46.00	11d	+$0.21	$0.17 to $0.30	67%	51%
Ss Escape	$50.96	43d	+$0.08	$-0.17 to $0.15	82%	79%
Safety Up	$53.46	43d	-$0.33	$-0.65 to $-0.29	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$50.46	43d	+$0.18	$-0.05 to $0.27	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $262,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds7%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

16 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.10 / mid $0.11 · $500 this cycle

9.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

93%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$344

If assigned

-$262,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.87/share ($4,358 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $48.05.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$47.50	8d	+$0.26	$0.26 to $0.35	68%	51%
Up And Out	$47.96	8d	+$0.03	$-0.03 to $0.08	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$53.96	43d	+$0.07	$-0.05 to $0.29	85%	82%
Safety Up	$54.96	43d	-$0.08	$-0.21 to $0.13	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$52.96	36d	+$0.05	$-0.07 to $0.26	84%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $44 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $274,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $44 CALL

16 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.60 / mid $0.61 · $3,000 this cycle

2.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$15,000

Annualized

84%

EV / cycle

+$1,139

If assigned

-$274,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.76/share ($3,777 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $45.07.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$44.50	8d	+$0.23	$0.19 to $0.23	68%	51%
Ss Escape	$49.96	43d	+$0.06	$-0.30 to $-0.02	85%	82%
Safety Up	$52.96	43d	-$0.33	$-0.79 to $-0.44	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$48.96	43d	+$0.25	$-0.07 to $0.19	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $49 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $251,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $49 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.64 / mid $0.65 · $3,200 this cycle

12.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,667

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,667

If assigned

-$251,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.16/share ($10,823 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $49.61.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.00	43d	+$0.36	$0.32 to $0.48	68%	52%
Up And Out	$49.46	43d	+$0.14	$0.08 to $0.24	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$49.46	43d	+$0.14	$0.08 to $0.24	70%	55%
Safety Up	$50.96	43d	-$0.49	$-0.61 to $-0.44	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $246,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.63 / mid $0.64 · $3,150 this cycle

14.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$2,198

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,744

If assigned

-$246,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $264,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $1.70 / mid $1.71 · $8,500 this cycle

4.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$5,930

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$2,882

If assigned

-$264,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-10 21:54 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.