IBIT @ $44.30

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-55.7%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $266,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

21 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.27 / mid $0.28 · $1,350 this cycle

5.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$5,786

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$669

If assigned

-$266,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.76/share ($3,788 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $47.06.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$46.50	9d	+$0.17	$0.14 to $0.21	66%	51%
Up And Out	$46.70	9d	+$0.07	$0.02 to $0.09	67%	54%
Ss Escape	$51.70	39d	+$0.01	$-0.20 to $0.05	84%	81%
Safety Up	$53.20	39d	-$0.21	$-0.47 to $-0.18	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$50.20	39d	+$0.32	$0.15 to $0.39	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $259,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

21 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.12 · $600 this cycle

8.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$2,571

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$397

If assigned

-$259,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.81/share ($4,074 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $48.56.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.00	9d	+$0.18	$0.19 to $0.28	66%	51%
Up And Out	$48.20	9d	+$0.08	$0.06 to $0.17	67%	54%
Ss Escape	$53.70	39d	+$0.00	$-0.13 to $0.22	84%	81%
Safety Up	$54.20	39d	-$0.07	$-0.21 to $0.15	85%	83%
Reliable Up	$53.20	39d	+$0.10	$-0.01 to $0.32	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $270,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

21 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.48 / mid $0.49 · $2,400 this cycle

2.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$10,286

Annualized

56%

EV / cycle

+$855

If assigned

-$270,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.72/share ($3,602 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $46.04.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.50	9d	+$0.16	$0.12 to $0.17	66%	51%
Up And Out	$45.70	9d	+$0.06	$0.00 to $0.05	67%	54%
Ss Escape	$50.20	39d	+$0.04	$-0.24 to $-0.01	83%	80%
Safety Up	$53.20	39d	-$0.34	$-0.72 to $-0.42	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$49.20	39d	+$0.26	$0.02 to $0.22	80%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $49 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $252,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $49 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.58 / mid $0.59 · $2,900 this cycle

10.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,719

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,451

If assigned

-$252,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.84/share ($9,179 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $49.58.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.00	39d	+$0.36	$0.33 to $0.48	68%	52%
Up And Out	$49.70	39d	+$0.03	$-0.03 to $0.12	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$49.70	39d	+$0.03	$-0.03 to $0.12	70%	57%
Safety Up	$51.20	39d	-$0.54	$-0.67 to $-0.50	76%	68%
Reliable Up	$49.20	39d	+$0.26	$0.22 to $0.37	68%	54%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $247,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.58 / mid $0.59 · $2,900 this cycle

12.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,231

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,514

If assigned

-$247,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $263,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $1.32 / mid $1.33 · $6,600 this cycle

3.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$6,188

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$2,161

If assigned

-$263,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.59/share ($7,935 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $46.50.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$46.00	39d	+$0.32	$0.25 to $0.30	68%	52%
Up And Out	$46.20	39d	+$0.22	$0.14 to $0.19	68%	54%
Ss Escape	$46.20	39d	+$0.22	$0.14 to $0.19	68%	54%
Safety Up	$52.20	39d	-$1.30	$-1.75 to $-1.51	91%	90%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-14 21:53 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.