IBIT @ $43.10

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-56.9%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $271,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

23 Sep 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.29 / mid $0.30 · $1,450 this cycle

5.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$5,437

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$682

If assigned

-$271,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.85/share ($4,263 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $46.08.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.50	10d	+$0.20	$0.17 to $0.25	67%	51%
Up And Out	$45.90	10d	+$0.01	$-0.05 to $0.04	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$51.40	45d	+$0.01	$-0.23 to $0.11	85%	82%
Safety Up	$53.40	45d	-$0.26	$-0.56 to $-0.18	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$50.40	45d	+$0.19	$-0.02 to $0.30	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $47 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $264,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $47 CALL

21 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.10 / mid $0.11 · $500 this cycle

9.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$342

If assigned

-$264,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.79/share ($3,940 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $47.60.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$47.00	8d	+$0.22	$0.22 to $0.31	67%	51%
Up And Out	$47.40	8d	+$0.04	$-0.01 to $0.11	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$53.90	45d	+$0.08	$-0.06 to $0.32	85%	83%
Safety Up	$53.90	38d	-$0.07	$-0.22 to $0.16	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $44 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $277,300 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $44 CALL

21 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.54 / mid $0.55 · $2,700 this cycle

2.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$13,500

Annualized

76%

EV / cycle

+$924

If assigned

-$277,300

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.68/share ($3,400 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $44.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$44.00	8d	+$0.19	$0.15 to $0.19	67%	51%
Up And Out	$44.40	8d	+$0.01	$-0.08 to $-0.02	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$49.90	45d	+$0.05	$-0.26 to $-0.03	86%	84%
Safety Up	$50.90	38d	-$0.22	$-0.58 to $-0.32	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$48.90	45d	+$0.22	$-0.05 to $0.16	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $256,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.72 / mid $0.73 · $3,600 this cycle

11.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,842

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,854

If assigned

-$256,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.07/share ($10,358 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $48.60.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.00	45d	+$0.32	$0.27 to $0.41	68%	52%
Up And Out	$48.40	45d	+$0.13	$0.06 to $0.19	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$48.40	45d	+$0.13	$0.06 to $0.19	69%	55%
Safety Up	$50.40	45d	-$0.65	$-0.80 to $-0.64	76%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $49 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $252,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $49 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $2,200 this cycle

13.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$2,129

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,211

If assigned

-$252,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.96/share ($9,805 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $49.59.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.00	38d	+$0.37	$0.35 to $0.55	68%	52%
Up And Out	$49.40	38d	+$0.18	$0.13 to $0.34	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$50.40	45d	+$0.09	$0.01 to $0.31	72%	61%
Safety Up	$51.90	45d	-$0.43	$-0.57 to $-0.24	76%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $45 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $268,600 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $45 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $1.28 / mid $1.29 · $6,400 this cycle

4.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$6,194

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$2,152

If assigned

-$268,600

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.62/share ($8,106 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $45.53.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.00	38d	+$0.31	$0.23 to $0.29	68%	52%
Up And Out	$45.40	38d	+$0.11	$0.02 to $0.08	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$45.90	45d	+$0.17	$0.02 to $0.12	71%	59%
Safety Up	$51.90	45d	-$1.22	$-1.69 to $-1.43	89%	88%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-15 21:53 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.