IBIT @ $42.94

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-57.1%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $45 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $273,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $45 CALL

23 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.25 / mid $0.27 · $1,250 this cycle

4.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$5,357

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$557

If assigned

-$273,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.76/share ($3,821 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $45.53.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.00	9d	+$0.14	$0.09 to $0.18	66%	51%
Up And Out	$45.06	9d	+$0.11	$0.06 to $0.14	66%	52%
Ss Escape	$50.06	44d	+$0.07	$-0.17 to $0.12	84%	80%
Safety Up	$52.06	44d	-$0.23	$-0.54 to $-0.21	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$48.56	44d	+$0.40	$0.22 to $0.48	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $269,600 (premium included).

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

21 Sep 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.08 / mid $0.08 · $400 this cycle

7.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$2,400

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$253

If assigned

-$269,600

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($3,187 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $46.53.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$46.00	7d	+$0.19	$0.18 to $0.26	67%	51%
Up And Out	$46.06	7d	+$0.17	$0.15 to $0.23	67%	52%
Ss Escape	$52.56	44d	+$0.08	$-0.08 to $0.23	86%	84%
Reliable Up	$51.06	44d	+$0.33	$0.21 to $0.48	82%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $44 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $278,200 (premium included).

Called-away odds29%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $44 CALL

21 Sep 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.36 / mid $0.36 · $1,800 this cycle

2.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

71%

Income / mo

$10,800

Annualized

61%

EV / cycle

+$639

If assigned

-$278,200

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($2,878 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $44.50.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$44.00	7d	+$0.18	$0.13 to $0.19	67%	51%
Up And Out	$44.06	7d	+$0.15	$0.10 to $0.16	67%	52%
Ss Escape	$50.06	44d	+$0.04	$-0.24 to $-0.01	86%	84%
Safety Up	$52.06	44d	-$0.19	$-0.51 to $-0.24	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$49.06	44d	+$0.19	$-0.05 to $0.17	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $257,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.58 / mid $0.59 · $2,900 this cycle

11.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,351

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,422

If assigned

-$257,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.98/share ($9,910 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $48.57.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.00	44d	+$0.29	$0.24 to $0.39	67%	52%
Up And Out	$48.56	44d	+$0.03	$-0.04 to $0.10	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$48.56	44d	+$0.03	$-0.04 to $0.10	69%	56%
Safety Up	$50.06	44d	-$0.56	$-0.69 to $-0.53	74%	66%
Reliable Up	$48.06	44d	+$0.26	$0.21 to $0.36	68%	53%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $257,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $2,200 this cycle

11.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$2,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,160

If assigned

-$257,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.75/share ($8,767 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $48.58.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.00	37d	+$0.34	$0.30 to $0.47	67%	52%
Up And Out	$48.56	37d	+$0.10	$0.04 to $0.19	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$49.06	44d	+$0.19	$0.10 to $0.33	71%	59%
Safety Up	$50.56	44d	-$0.35	$-0.50 to $-0.25	76%	69%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $45 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $269,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $45 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $1.07 / mid $1.08 · $5,350 this cycle

4.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$5,350

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,802

If assigned

-$269,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.51/share ($7,564 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $45.51.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.00	37d	+$0.29	$0.22 to $0.28	67%	52%
Up And Out	$45.56	37d	+$0.05	$-0.04 to $0.02	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$46.06	44d	+$0.10	$-0.04 to $0.06	71%	60%
Safety Up	$50.56	44d	-$1.03	$-1.42 to $-1.18	87%	86%
Reliable Up	$45.56	44d	+$0.32	$0.19 to $0.29	70%	57%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-16 21:52 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.