IBIT @ $43.16

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-56.8%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $45 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $274,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $45 CALL

23 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.19 / mid $0.20 · $950 this cycle

4.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$4,750

Annualized

27%

EV / cycle

+$516

If assigned

-$274,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($3,143 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $45.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.00	8d	+$0.19	$0.17 to $0.23	67%	51%
Up And Out	$45.34	8d	+$0.02	$-0.04 to $0.04	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$50.34	43d	+$0.07	$-0.13 to $0.15	85%	82%
Safety Up	$51.84	43d	-$0.14	$-0.38 to $-0.07	89%	87%
Reliable Up	$48.84	43d	+$0.38	$0.23 to $0.47	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $269,300 (premium included).

Called-away odds11%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $700 this cycle

6.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

89%

Income / mo

$2,625

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$432

If assigned

-$269,300

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.78/share ($3,894 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $46.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$46.00	11d	+$0.19	$0.18 to $0.28	67%	51%
Up And Out	$46.34	11d	+$0.03	$-0.02 to $0.10	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$50.84	43d	+$0.10	$-0.07 to $0.23	83%	80%
Safety Up	$51.84	43d	-$0.09	$-0.28 to $0.04	86%	83%
Reliable Up	$49.84	43d	+$0.32	$0.18 to $0.46	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $44 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $277,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $44 CALL

23 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.43 · $2,150 this cycle

1.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$10,750

Annualized

61%

EV / cycle

+$829

If assigned

-$277,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.59/share ($2,973 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $44.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$44.00	8d	+$0.18	$0.14 to $0.18	67%	51%
Up And Out	$44.34	8d	+$0.01	$-0.06 to $-0.01	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$49.34	43d	+$0.02	$-0.26 to $-0.04	86%	84%
Safety Up	$50.34	36d	-$0.25	$-0.59 to $-0.33	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$47.84	43d	+$0.31	$0.09 to $0.27	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $259,450 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.61 / mid $0.62 · $3,050 this cycle

10.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,542

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,529

If assigned

-$259,450

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.84/share ($9,220 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $48.02.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$47.50	43d	+$0.33	$0.28 to $0.40	68%	52%
Up And Out	$47.84	43d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.22	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$47.84	43d	+$0.16	$0.10 to $0.22	69%	55%
Safety Up	$49.34	43d	-$0.47	$-0.59 to $-0.46	75%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $257,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.53 / mid $0.54 · $2,650 this cycle

11.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,208

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$1,411

If assigned

-$257,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.89/share ($9,449 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $48.55.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.00	43d	+$0.33	$0.29 to $0.43	68%	52%
Up And Out	$48.34	43d	+$0.16	$0.11 to $0.24	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$48.34	43d	+$0.16	$0.11 to $0.24	69%	55%
Safety Up	$49.84	43d	-$0.47	$-0.58 to $-0.43	75%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $45 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $268,700 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $45 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $1.26 / mid $1.27 · $6,300 this cycle

4.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$5,250

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$2,225

If assigned

-$268,700

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.62/share ($8,114 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $45.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.00	43d	+$0.29	$0.22 to $0.28	68%	52%
Up And Out	$45.34	43d	+$0.12	$0.04 to $0.10	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$45.34	43d	+$0.12	$0.04 to $0.10	69%	55%
Safety Up	$49.84	43d	-$1.19	$-1.56 to $-1.36	87%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-17 21:52 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.