IBIT @ $44.92

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-55.1%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $47 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $263,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $47 CALL

25 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.29 / mid $0.29 · $1,450 this cycle

4.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$6,214

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$802

If assigned

-$263,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.79/share ($3,929 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $47.50.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$47.00	10d	+$0.21	$0.16 to $0.28	69%	51%
Up And Out	$47.08	10d	+$0.17	$0.12 to $0.23	69%	52%
Ss Escape	$52.08	42d	+$0.16	$-0.05 to $0.25	85%	81%
Safety Up	$54.08	42d	-$0.15	$-0.41 to $-0.09	90%	88%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $257,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds7%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

23 Sep 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.09 / mid $0.10 · $450 this cycle

8.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

93%

Income / mo

$2,700

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$330

If assigned

-$257,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.71/share ($3,532 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $48.95.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.50	7d	+$0.22	$0.21 to $0.30	69%	51%
Up And Out	$48.58	7d	+$0.18	$0.15 to $0.25	70%	52%
Ss Escape	$56.58	42d	+$0.01	$-0.10 to $0.21	91%	89%
Safety Up	$57.58	42d	-$0.07	$-0.19 to $0.12	93%	91%
Reliable Up	$54.08	35d	+$0.09	$-0.01 to $0.29	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $269,800 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

23 Sep 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.54 / mid $0.55 · $2,700 this cycle

1.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$16,200

Annualized

88%

EV / cycle

+$1,072

If assigned

-$269,800

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($3,015 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 2 at spot $45.98.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$45.50	7d	+$0.19	$0.13 to $0.18	69%	51%
Up And Out	$45.58	7d	+$0.15	$0.08 to $0.13	70%	53%
Ss Escape	$51.58	42d	+$0.05	$-0.29 to $-0.04	88%	86%
Safety Up	$52.58	42d	-$0.08	$-0.45 to $-0.18	91%	89%
Reliable Up	$49.08	42d	+$0.52	$0.26 to $0.47	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $248,950 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.71 / mid $0.72 · $3,550 this cycle

10.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,043

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,932

If assigned

-$248,950

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.03/share ($10,151 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $50.07.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	42d	+$0.36	$0.31 to $0.45	69%	52%
Up And Out	$50.08	42d	+$0.07	$0.00 to $0.13	71%	56%
Ss Escape	$50.08	42d	+$0.07	$0.00 to $0.13	71%	56%
Safety Up	$51.58	42d	-$0.55	$-0.70 to $-0.54	76%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $241,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.65 / mid $0.66 · $3,250 this cycle

13.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$2,321

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$2,182

If assigned

-$241,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $46 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $259,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $46 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $1.53 / mid $1.54 · $7,650 this cycle

3.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$6,557

Annualized

36%

EV / cycle

+$2,844

If assigned

-$259,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.75/share ($8,765 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $47.02.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$46.50	42d	+$0.31	$0.23 to $0.29	69%	52%
Up And Out	$47.08	42d	+$0.03	$-0.07 to $-0.02	71%	57%
Ss Escape	$47.08	42d	+$0.03	$-0.07 to $-0.02	71%	57%
Safety Up	$52.58	42d	-$1.40	$-1.85 to $-1.61	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$46.58	42d	+$0.27	$0.19 to $0.24	69%	53%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-18 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.