IBIT @ $48.63

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-51.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $243,700 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

28 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.26 / mid $0.27 · $1,300 this cycle

4.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$6,500

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$729

If assigned

-$243,700

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.78/share ($3,911 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $51.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.00	8d	+$0.25	$0.22 to $0.28	67%	51%
Up And Out	$51.37	8d	+$0.07	$0.00 to $0.09	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$57.37	38d	+$0.05	$-0.18 to $0.14	87%	84%
Reliable Up	$56.37	38d	+$0.22	$0.02 to $0.32	84%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $234,250 (premium included).

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

30 Sep 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.15 · $750 this cycle

9.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$2,812

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$507

If assigned

-$234,250

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.02/share ($5,086 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $53.53.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	10d	+$0.24	$0.24 to $0.36	67%	51%
Up And Out	$53.37	10d	+$0.07	$0.05 to $0.15	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$58.37	38d	+$0.16	$0.08 to $0.47	83%	79%
Safety Up	$59.37	38d	-$0.02	$-0.12 to $0.28	86%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $249,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

28 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.62 / mid $0.62 · $3,100 this cycle

1.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$15,500

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$1,170

If assigned

-$249,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.73/share ($3,644 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $50.05.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	8d	+$0.23	$0.19 to $0.23	67%	51%
Up And Out	$49.87	8d	+$0.06	$-0.04 to $0.03	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$54.87	38d	+$0.12	$-0.20 to $0.03	85%	82%
Safety Up	$55.87	24d	-$0.40	$-0.84 to $-0.53	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$52.87	38d	+$0.57	$0.33 to $0.52	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $54 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $225,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $54 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.85 / mid $0.86 · $4,250 this cycle

11.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,355

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$2,363

If assigned

-$225,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $55 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $222,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $55 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.52 / mid $0.53 · $2,600 this cycle

13.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$2,516

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,444

If assigned

-$222,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.18/share ($10,922 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $55.63.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$55.00	38d	+$0.43	$0.41 to $0.60	68%	52%
Up And Out	$55.87	38d	+$0.03	$-0.03 to $0.14	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$55.87	38d	+$0.03	$-0.03 to $0.14	71%	58%
Safety Up	$56.37	38d	-$0.17	$-0.25 to $-0.08	72%	61%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $239,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $1.53 / mid $1.54 · $7,650 this cycle

3.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$7,403

Annualized

37%

EV / cycle

+$2,633

If assigned

-$239,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.80/share ($8,995 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $51.08.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$50.50	38d	+$0.36	$0.27 to $0.33	68%	52%
Up And Out	$50.87	38d	+$0.18	$0.08 to $0.14	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$50.87	38d	+$0.18	$0.08 to $0.14	69%	55%
Safety Up	$56.87	38d	-$1.40	$-1.86 to $-1.62	91%	89%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-22 21:48 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.