IBIT @ $48.55

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-51.5%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $243,600 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

30 Sep 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.28 / mid $0.29 · $1,400 this cycle

5.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$715

If assigned

-$243,600

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.82/share ($4,106 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $51.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.00	9d	+$0.23	$0.20 to $0.27	66%	51%
Up And Out	$51.45	9d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.05	69%	58%
Ss Escape	$56.45	37d	+$0.04	$-0.18 to $0.14	84%	81%
Safety Up	$57.45	37d	-$0.13	$-0.37 to $-0.04	86%	84%
Reliable Up	$55.45	37d	+$0.24	$0.06 to $0.35	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $239,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

28 Sep 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.09 / mid $0.10 · $450 this cycle

7.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$2,700

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$306

If assigned

-$239,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.72/share ($3,596 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $52.49.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$52.00	7d	+$0.24	$0.24 to $0.32	68%	51%
Up And Out	$52.45	7d	+$0.04	$-0.01 to $0.10	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$58.45	37d	+$0.09	$-0.02 to $0.27	85%	83%
Reliable Up	$57.45	37d	+$0.26	$0.18 to $0.45	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $250,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

28 Sep 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.48 / mid $0.48 · $2,400 this cycle

2.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$14,400

Annualized

72%

EV / cycle

+$893

If assigned

-$250,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($3,198 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 2 at spot $50.03.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	7d	+$0.21	$0.17 to $0.22	68%	51%
Up And Out	$49.95	7d	+$0.02	$-0.08 to $-0.01	72%	60%
Ss Escape	$54.95	37d	+$0.12	$-0.19 to $0.05	85%	82%
Safety Up	$55.95	23d	-$0.37	$-0.76 to $-0.45	91%	91%
Reliable Up	$52.95	30d	+$0.29	$0.05 to $0.24	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $54 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $226,300 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $54 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.74 / mid $0.74 · $3,700 this cycle

11.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,000

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,836

If assigned

-$226,300

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $54 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $227,250 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $54 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.55 / mid $0.56 · $2,750 this cycle

11.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,750

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,420

If assigned

-$227,250

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.98/share ($9,923 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $54.61.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$54.00	37d	+$0.43	$0.39 to $0.60	68%	52%
Up And Out	$54.45	37d	+$0.21	$0.16 to $0.34	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$54.45	37d	+$0.21	$0.16 to $0.34	69%	55%
Safety Up	$55.45	37d	-$0.22	$-0.30 to $-0.13	72%	62%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $240,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $1.37 / mid $1.38 · $6,850 this cycle

4.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$6,850

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$2,322

If assigned

-$240,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.70/share ($8,505 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $51.08.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$50.50	37d	+$0.37	$0.30 to $0.36	68%	52%
Up And Out	$50.95	37d	+$0.15	$0.06 to $0.12	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$50.95	37d	+$0.15	$0.06 to $0.12	69%	56%
Safety Up	$56.95	37d	-$1.36	$-1.83 to $-1.56	90%	89%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-23 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.