IBIT @ $47.53

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-52.5%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $251,200 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

30 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.26 / mid $0.27 · $1,300 this cycle

4.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$6,500

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$649

If assigned

-$251,200

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.69/share ($3,449 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $50.02.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	8d	+$0.22	$0.20 to $0.25	66%	51%
Up And Out	$49.97	8d	+$0.01	$-0.07 to $0.01	70%	59%
Ss Escape	$54.97	36d	+$0.10	$-0.12 to $0.16	84%	82%
Safety Up	$56.97	36d	-$0.17	$-0.44 to $-0.13	89%	87%
Reliable Up	$54.47	43d	+$0.42	$0.26 to $0.50	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $244,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

30 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.10 / mid $0.11 · $500 this cycle

7.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$335

If assigned

-$244,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($3,704 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $51.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.00	8d	+$0.24	$0.23 to $0.31	66%	51%
Up And Out	$51.47	8d	+$0.02	$-0.03 to $0.07	70%	59%
Ss Escape	$57.47	36d	+$0.01	$-0.15 to $0.20	86%	83%
Reliable Up	$56.47	36d	+$0.18	$0.07 to $0.38	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $255,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

30 Sep 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.49 / mid $0.50 · $2,450 this cycle

2.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$12,250

Annualized

63%

EV / cycle

+$852

If assigned

-$255,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.66/share ($3,284 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $49.05.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.50	8d	+$0.21	$0.17 to $0.21	66%	51%
Ss Escape	$53.97	36d	+$0.05	$-0.26 to $-0.02	85%	83%
Safety Up	$55.97	29d	-$0.36	$-0.76 to $-0.46	91%	91%
Reliable Up	$53.47	43d	+$0.34	$0.10 to $0.30	84%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $230,650 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.87 / mid $0.92 · $4,350 this cycle

11.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,035

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$2,463

If assigned

-$230,650

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $231,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.70 / mid $0.71 · $3,500 this cycle

11.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,917

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,762

If assigned

-$231,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.14/share ($10,701 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $53.61.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	43d	+$0.39	$0.35 to $0.51	68%	52%
Up And Out	$53.47	43d	+$0.17	$0.11 to $0.27	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$53.47	43d	+$0.17	$0.11 to $0.27	69%	55%
Safety Up	$55.47	43d	-$0.60	$-0.73 to $-0.57	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $244,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $1.53 / mid $1.54 · $7,650 this cycle

4.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$6,375

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$2,478

If assigned

-$244,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.83/share ($9,149 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $50.06.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	43d	+$0.34	$0.26 to $0.31	68%	52%
Up And Out	$49.97	43d	+$0.12	$0.03 to $0.08	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$49.97	43d	+$0.12	$0.03 to $0.08	69%	56%
Safety Up	$54.97	43d	-$1.30	$-1.65 to $-1.46	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-24 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.