IBIT @ $47.41

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-52.6%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $251,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.28 / mid $0.29 · $1,400 this cycle

4.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$679

If assigned

-$251,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.77/share ($3,860 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $50.04.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	9d	+$0.18	$0.14 to $0.22	66%	51%
Up And Out	$49.59	9d	+$0.13	$0.09 to $0.17	66%	52%
Ss Escape	$55.09	39d	+$0.04	$-0.18 to $0.10	85%	82%
Safety Up	$57.09	39d	-$0.24	$-0.51 to $-0.20	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$53.59	39d	+$0.36	$0.18 to $0.44	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $244,450 (premium included).

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.11 / mid $0.11 · $550 this cycle

7.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$2,357

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$371

If assigned

-$244,450

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.83/share ($4,142 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $51.57.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.00	9d	+$0.19	$0.17 to $0.28	66%	51%
Up And Out	$51.09	9d	+$0.14	$0.12 to $0.23	66%	52%
Ss Escape	$56.59	39d	+$0.14	$-0.01 to $0.36	84%	81%
Safety Up	$57.59	39d	-$0.03	$-0.20 to $0.18	87%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $254,900 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.52 / mid $0.54 · $2,600 this cycle

2.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$11,143

Annualized

57%

EV / cycle

+$903

If assigned

-$254,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.74/share ($3,678 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $49.04.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.50	9d	+$0.17	$0.12 to $0.17	66%	51%
Up And Out	$48.59	9d	+$0.12	$0.07 to $0.12	66%	52%
Ss Escape	$53.59	39d	+$0.07	$-0.20 to $0.02	85%	81%
Safety Up	$56.09	39d	-$0.28	$-0.63 to $-0.37	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$52.59	39d	+$0.29	$0.05 to $0.24	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $233,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.80 / mid $0.83 · $4,000 this cycle

10.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,077

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$2,185

If assigned

-$233,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $232,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.53 / mid $0.54 · $2,650 this cycle

11.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$2,484

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,430

If assigned

-$232,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.99/share ($9,966 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $53.60.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	39d	+$0.40	$0.37 to $0.53	68%	52%
Up And Out	$53.59	39d	+$0.15	$0.09 to $0.24	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$53.59	39d	+$0.15	$0.09 to $0.24	70%	56%
Safety Up	$55.09	39d	-$0.44	$-0.55 to $-0.39	75%	66%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $246,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $1.30 / mid $1.31 · $6,500 this cycle

4.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$6,094

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$2,190

If assigned

-$246,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.70/share ($8,508 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $50.06.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	39d	+$0.35	$0.28 to $0.33	68%	52%
Up And Out	$50.09	39d	+$0.09	$0.00 to $0.05	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$50.09	39d	+$0.09	$0.00 to $0.05	70%	57%
Safety Up	$55.09	39d	-$1.26	$-1.65 to $-1.44	89%	87%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-28 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.