IBIT @ $47.60

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-52.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $251,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.23 · $1,150 this cycle

4.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$5,750

Annualized

29%

EV / cycle

+$597

If assigned

-$251,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($3,340 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $49.98.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	8d	+$0.19	$0.14 to $0.22	66%	51%
Up And Out	$49.90	8d	+$0.00	$-0.10 to $0.01	69%	58%
Ss Escape	$54.90	38d	+$0.12	$-0.09 to $0.18	84%	81%
Safety Up	$56.90	38d	-$0.16	$-0.43 to $-0.10	89%	87%
Reliable Up	$54.40	38d	+$0.21	$0.02 to $0.28	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $244,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

7 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $650 this cycle

7.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$2,438

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$416

If assigned

-$244,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.84/share ($4,205 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $51.56.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.00	10d	+$0.21	$0.23 to $0.30	67%	51%
Up And Out	$51.40	10d	+$0.02	$0.00 to $0.07	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$56.40	38d	+$0.05	$-0.11 to $0.20	83%	80%
Reliable Up	$55.40	38d	+$0.26	$0.14 to $0.42	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $255,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.47 · $2,350 this cycle

1.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$11,750

Annualized

60%

EV / cycle

+$867

If assigned

-$255,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($3,173 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $49.01.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.50	8d	+$0.19	$0.11 to $0.17	66%	51%
Ss Escape	$53.90	38d	+$0.07	$-0.24 to $-0.01	85%	82%
Safety Up	$55.90	31d	-$0.34	$-0.74 to $-0.44	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$52.90	38d	+$0.26	$-0.01 to $0.20	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $231,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 38 DTE · bid $0.70 / mid $0.74 · $3,500 this cycle

11.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,763

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,671

If assigned

-$231,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $232,450 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.51 / mid $0.52 · $2,550 this cycle

11.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$2,468

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,377

If assigned

-$232,450

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.94/share ($9,689 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $53.59.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	38d	+$0.44	$0.41 to $0.58	68%	52%
Up And Out	$53.90	38d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.12	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$53.90	38d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.12	71%	58%
Safety Up	$54.90	38d	-$0.37	$-0.48 to $-0.30	74%	65%
Reliable Up	$53.40	38d	+$0.24	$0.19 to $0.35	69%	55%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $245,900 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $1.32 / mid $1.33 · $6,600 this cycle

4.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$6,387

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$2,275

If assigned

-$245,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.65/share ($8,258 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $50.04.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	38d	+$0.38	$0.32 to $0.37	68%	52%
Up And Out	$49.90	38d	+$0.18	$0.10 to $0.15	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$49.90	38d	+$0.18	$0.10 to $0.15	69%	55%
Safety Up	$54.90	38d	-$1.22	$-1.64 to $-1.39	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-29 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.