IBIT @ $47.30

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-52.7%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $49 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $253,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $49 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.23 · $1,150 this cycle

3.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$6,900

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$702

If assigned

-$253,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($3,180 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $49.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.00	7d	+$0.19	$0.14 to $0.23	68%	51%
Up And Out	$49.20	7d	+$0.09	$0.02 to $0.10	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$54.70	37d	+$0.06	$-0.19 to $0.10	85%	83%
Safety Up	$56.70	37d	-$0.20	$-0.50 to $-0.17	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$54.20	37d	+$0.15	$-0.09 to $0.19	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $249,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.10 / mid $0.11 · $500 this cycle

5.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$3,000

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$374

If assigned

-$249,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.67/share ($3,348 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $50.45.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$50.00	7d	+$0.20	$0.18 to $0.27	68%	51%
Up And Out	$50.20	7d	+$0.10	$0.06 to $0.15	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$55.70	37d	+$0.11	$-0.02 to $0.28	85%	82%
Safety Up	$56.70	37d	-$0.05	$-0.21 to $0.12	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$55.20	37d	+$0.20	$0.08 to $0.37	84%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $257,550 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.49 / mid $0.50 · $2,450 this cycle

1.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$14,700

Annualized

76%

EV / cycle

+$1,046

If assigned

-$257,550

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($3,016 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 2 at spot $48.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.00	7d	+$0.18	$0.12 to $0.17	68%	51%
Up And Out	$48.20	7d	+$0.08	$-0.01 to $0.05	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$53.70	37d	+$0.01	$-0.33 to $-0.08	86%	84%
Safety Up	$55.70	37d	-$0.23	$-0.63 to $-0.34	91%	90%
Reliable Up	$51.20	37d	+$0.53	$0.28 to $0.47	79%	73%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $237,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.59 / mid $0.60 · $2,950 this cycle

9.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,950

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,573

If assigned

-$237,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.88/share ($9,380 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $52.58.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$52.00	37d	+$0.39	$0.34 to $0.48	68%	52%
Up And Out	$52.70	37d	+$0.06	$-0.01 to $0.11	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$52.70	37d	+$0.06	$-0.01 to $0.11	70%	57%
Safety Up	$54.20	37d	-$0.53	$-0.68 to $-0.51	75%	67%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $231,900 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.62 / mid $0.64 · $3,100 this cycle

12.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,514

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,596

If assigned

-$231,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $49 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $248,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $49 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $1.37 / mid $1.38 · $6,850 this cycle

3.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$6,850

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$2,404

If assigned

-$248,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.63/share ($8,159 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $49.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.00	37d	+$0.34	$0.26 to $0.32	68%	52%
Up And Out	$49.70	37d	+$0.01	$-0.09 to $-0.03	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$49.70	37d	+$0.01	$-0.09 to $-0.03	70%	58%
Safety Up	$54.70	37d	-$1.27	$-1.73 to $-1.48	89%	88%
Reliable Up	$49.20	37d	+$0.24	$0.16 to $0.21	68%	54%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-30 03:50 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.