IBIT @ $47.78

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-52.2%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $251,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.24 · $1,150 this cycle

3.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$6,900

Annualized

35%

EV / cycle

+$634

If assigned

-$251,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($3,188 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $49.97.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	7d	+$0.20	$0.17 to $0.25	68%	51%
Up And Out	$49.72	7d	+$0.09	$0.03 to $0.11	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$54.72	37d	+$0.16	$-0.05 to $0.22	84%	81%
Safety Up	$56.72	37d	-$0.15	$-0.43 to $-0.10	89%	87%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $244,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

7 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.13 / mid $0.14 · $650 this cycle

6.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$2,786

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$428

If assigned

-$244,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.82/share ($4,087 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $51.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.00	9d	+$0.21	$0.20 to $0.29	67%	51%
Up And Out	$51.22	9d	+$0.10	$0.06 to $0.15	68%	54%
Ss Escape	$56.22	37d	+$0.09	$-0.10 to $0.29	83%	80%
Safety Up	$57.22	37d	-$0.09	$-0.32 to $0.09	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $255,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

5 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.49 / mid $0.50 · $2,450 this cycle

1.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$14,700

Annualized

75%

EV / cycle

+$955

If assigned

-$255,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($3,028 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 2 at spot $49.00.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.50	7d	+$0.19	$0.14 to $0.19	68%	51%
Up And Out	$48.72	7d	+$0.08	$0.00 to $0.07	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$53.72	37d	+$0.11	$-0.21 to $0.04	85%	82%
Safety Up	$55.72	30d	-$0.32	$-0.74 to $-0.41	91%	91%
Reliable Up	$52.72	37d	+$0.31	$0.02 to $0.26	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $231,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 37 DTE · bid $0.72 / mid $0.76 · $3,600 this cycle

10.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,919

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,741

If assigned

-$231,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $232,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.53 / mid $0.54 · $2,650 this cycle

10.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,650

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,431

If assigned

-$232,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.97/share ($9,834 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 17 at spot $53.61.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	37d	+$0.40	$0.36 to $0.52	68%	52%
Up And Out	$53.72	37d	+$0.06	$-0.02 to $0.14	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$53.72	37d	+$0.06	$-0.02 to $0.14	70%	57%
Safety Up	$54.72	37d	-$0.36	$-0.48 to $-0.30	74%	64%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $245,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

30 Oct 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $1.40 / mid $1.42 · $7,000 this cycle

3.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$7,000

Annualized

36%

EV / cycle

+$2,441

If assigned

-$245,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.68/share ($8,382 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $50.06.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	37d	+$0.35	$0.26 to $0.32	68%	52%
Up And Out	$50.22	37d	+$0.00	$-0.11 to $-0.05	71%	58%
Ss Escape	$50.22	37d	+$0.00	$-0.11 to $-0.05	71%	58%
Safety Up	$55.72	37d	-$1.36	$-1.88 to $-1.60	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$49.72	37d	+$0.24	$0.15 to $0.20	69%	54%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-09-30 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.