If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.68/share ($3,386 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $49.95.
| Door | New strike | Tenor | Est credit/sh | P25-P75 | POP | Survival |
|---|
| Credit Out | $49.50 | 8d | +$0.21 | $0.19 to $0.26 | 67% | 51% |
| Up And Out | $49.59 | 8d | +$0.16 | $0.13 to $0.20 | 68% | 53% |
| Ss Escape | $54.59 | 36d | +$0.08 | $-0.10 to $0.17 | 84% | 81% |
| Safety Up | $56.09 | 36d | -$0.15 | $-0.37 to $-0.07 | 88% | 86% |
| Reliable Up | $54.09 | 36d | +$0.19 | $0.02 to $0.28 | 83% | 79% |
Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.