IBIT @ $47.56

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-52.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $251,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

7 Oct 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $1,000 this cycle

4.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$5,000

Annualized

26%

EV / cycle

+$515

If assigned

-$251,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($3,166 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $49.95.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	8d	+$0.21	$0.19 to $0.25	66%	51%
Up And Out	$49.94	8d	+$0.01	$-0.06 to $0.02	70%	59%
Ss Escape	$54.94	36d	+$0.04	$-0.14 to $0.12	85%	82%
Safety Up	$55.94	36d	-$0.11	$-0.32 to $-0.04	87%	86%
Reliable Up	$54.44	43d	+$0.33	$0.18 to $0.41	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $249,300 (premium included).

Called-away odds12%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

7 Oct 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $700 this cycle

5.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

88%

Income / mo

$3,500

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$421

If assigned

-$249,300

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.65/share ($3,247 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $50.51.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$50.00	8d	+$0.21	$0.19 to $0.26	66%	51%
Up And Out	$50.44	8d	+$0.01	$-0.06 to $0.03	70%	59%
Ss Escape	$55.44	36d	+$0.07	$-0.13 to $0.15	84%	82%
Safety Up	$56.44	36d	-$0.09	$-0.31 to $-0.00	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$54.94	43d	+$0.36	$0.21 to $0.47	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $254,600 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

9 Oct 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.58 / mid $0.59 · $2,900 this cycle

2.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$10,875

Annualized

56%

EV / cycle

+$945

If assigned

-$254,600

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.73/share ($3,670 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $49.00.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.50	11d	+$0.16	$0.09 to $0.16	66%	51%
Ss Escape	$53.44	43d	+$0.10	$-0.19 to $0.03	84%	80%
Safety Up	$55.94	36d	-$0.39	$-0.80 to $-0.51	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$52.94	43d	+$0.21	$-0.06 to $0.15	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $232,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.60 / mid $0.64 · $3,000 this cycle

11.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,445

If assigned

-$232,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.17/share ($10,867 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $53.60.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	43d	+$0.29	$0.23 to $0.43	68%	52%
Up And Out	$53.44	43d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.21	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$53.44	43d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.21	69%	55%
Safety Up	$54.94	43d	-$0.54	$-0.67 to $-0.48	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $232,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.60 / mid $0.64 · $3,000 this cycle

11.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,445

If assigned

-$232,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.17/share ($10,867 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $53.60.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	43d	+$0.29	$0.23 to $0.43	68%	52%
Up And Out	$53.44	43d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.21	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$53.44	43d	+$0.08	$0.01 to $0.21	69%	55%
Safety Up	$54.94	43d	-$0.54	$-0.67 to $-0.48	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $245,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $1.47 / mid $1.52 · $7,350 this cycle

4.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$6,125

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$2,390

If assigned

-$245,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.86/share ($9,277 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $50.04.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	43d	+$0.24	$0.14 to $0.21	68%	52%
Up And Out	$49.94	43d	+$0.04	$-0.07 to $-0.01	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$49.94	43d	+$0.04	$-0.07 to $-0.01	69%	55%
Safety Up	$54.44	43d	-$1.32	$-1.73 to $-1.51	86%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-01 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.