IBIT @ $49.26

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-50.7%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $51 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $243,900 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $51 CALL

7 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.23 · $1,100 this cycle

3.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$6,600

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$522

If assigned

-$243,900

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($2,998 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $51.48.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.00	7d	+$0.21	$0.19 to $0.25	67%	51%
Up And Out	$51.24	7d	+$0.09	$0.04 to $0.11	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$56.74	35d	+$0.07	$-0.16 to $0.10	85%	83%
Safety Up	$56.74	28d	-$0.14	$-0.39 to $-0.11	87%	86%
Reliable Up	$56.74	42d	+$0.27	$0.08 to $0.31	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $239,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

7 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.12 / mid $0.12 · $600 this cycle

5.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$3,600

Annualized

18%

EV / cycle

+$381

If assigned

-$239,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($3,147 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $52.49.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$52.00	7d	+$0.22	$0.21 to $0.28	67%	51%
Up And Out	$52.24	7d	+$0.10	$0.06 to $0.15	69%	56%
Ss Escape	$57.74	35d	+$0.12	$-0.06 to $0.25	85%	82%
Safety Up	$57.74	28d	-$0.10	$-0.31 to $0.02	87%	85%
Reliable Up	$57.74	42d	+$0.34	$0.20 to $0.49	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $247,750 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

7 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.45 / mid $0.46 · $2,250 this cycle

1.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$13,500

Annualized

67%

EV / cycle

+$704

If assigned

-$247,750

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.57/share ($2,852 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 2 at spot $50.51.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$50.00	7d	+$0.20	$0.16 to $0.21	67%	51%
Up And Out	$50.24	7d	+$0.09	$0.01 to $0.07	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$55.74	35d	+$0.02	$-0.30 to $-0.05	86%	84%
Safety Up	$60.74	42d	-$0.28	$-0.65 to $-0.37	95%	95%
Reliable Up	$55.74	42d	+$0.20	$-0.07 to $0.13	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $55 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $221,200 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $55 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.76 / mid $0.80 · $3,800 this cycle

11.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,714

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$2,118

If assigned

-$221,200

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $55 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $222,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $55 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $0.60 / mid $0.63 · $3,000 this cycle

11.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$2,571

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,440

If assigned

-$222,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.22/share ($11,091 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $55.61.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$55.00	42d	+$0.32	$0.26 to $0.46	68%	52%
Up And Out	$55.24	42d	+$0.20	$0.13 to $0.33	69%	54%
Ss Escape	$55.24	42d	+$0.20	$0.13 to $0.33	69%	54%
Safety Up	$56.74	42d	-$0.46	$-0.58 to $-0.37	73%	63%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $235,400 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 35 DTE · bid $1.42 / mid $1.46 · $7,100 this cycle

4.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$6,086

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$2,338

If assigned

-$235,400

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.91/share ($9,532 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $52.09.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.50	42d	+$0.27	$0.17 to $0.26	68%	52%
Up And Out	$51.74	42d	+$0.15	$0.04 to $0.12	69%	54%
Ss Escape	$51.74	42d	+$0.15	$0.04 to $0.12	69%	54%
Safety Up	$56.24	42d	-$1.28	$-1.66 to $-1.44	85%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-02 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.