IBIT @ $48.65

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-51.4%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $241,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

16 Oct 2026 · 11 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.31 · $1,500 this cycle

5.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$4,091

Annualized

20%

EV / cycle

+$780

If assigned

-$241,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.98/share ($4,879 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $52.07.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.50	14d	+$0.21	$0.22 to $0.33	68%	51%
Up And Out	$51.85	14d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.10	70%	56%
Ss Escape	$55.85	39d	+$0.07	$-0.12 to $0.17	81%	76%
Safety Up	$56.85	39d	-$0.14	$-0.37 to $-0.05	84%	80%
Reliable Up	$55.35	39d	+$0.19	$0.03 to $0.31	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $53 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $233,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds14%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $53 CALL

23 Oct 2026 · 18 DTE · bid $0.30 / mid $0.30 · $1,500 this cycle

8.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

86%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$871

If assigned

-$233,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.36/share ($6,805 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $53.57.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$53.00	25d	+$0.50	$0.49 to $0.66	68%	52%
Up And Out	$53.85	25d	+$0.10	$0.05 to $0.22	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$55.85	39d	+$0.13	$0.00 to $0.31	76%	69%
Safety Up	$57.35	39d	-$0.29	$-0.47 to $-0.12	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $250,100 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

12 Oct 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.48 / mid $0.48 · $2,400 this cycle

1.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$10,286

Annualized

51%

EV / cycle

+$850

If assigned

-$250,100

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($3,146 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $49.95.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	11d	+$0.39	$0.33 to $0.38	65%	51%
Up And Out	$50.35	11d	+$0.02	$-0.09 to $-0.01	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$54.85	39d	+$0.09	$-0.19 to $0.02	84%	82%
Safety Up	$53.85	18d	-$0.39	$-0.71 to $-0.48	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$53.85	39d	+$0.29	$0.05 to $0.23	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $54 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $226,350 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $54 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 39 DTE · bid $0.73 / mid $0.74 · $3,650 this cycle

11.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$2,808

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,764

If assigned

-$226,350

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $54 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $227,250 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $54 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $0.55 / mid $0.57 · $2,750 this cycle

11.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,578

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,399

If assigned

-$227,250

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.05/share ($10,256 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $54.60.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$54.00	39d	+$0.38	$0.33 to $0.49	68%	52%
Up And Out	$54.35	39d	+$0.20	$0.14 to $0.30	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$54.35	39d	+$0.20	$0.14 to $0.30	69%	55%
Safety Up	$55.85	39d	-$0.43	$-0.55 to $-0.37	74%	64%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $240,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

6 Nov 2026 · 32 DTE · bid $1.40 / mid $1.44 · $7,000 this cycle

3.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$6,562

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$2,314

If assigned

-$240,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.75/share ($8,772 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 10 at spot $51.07.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$50.50	39d	+$0.33	$0.24 to $0.30	68%	52%
Up And Out	$50.85	39d	+$0.15	$0.05 to $0.12	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$50.85	39d	+$0.15	$0.05 to $0.12	69%	55%
Safety Up	$55.85	39d	-$1.31	$-1.77 to $-1.51	87%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-05 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.