IBIT @ $46.31

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU6241782

Shares5,000

Avg cost$100.00

Drawdown-53.7%

IV regimeMEDIUM

Writable50

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $100.00 basis.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $258,850 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

13 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.24 · $1,150 this cycle

3.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$6,900

Annualized

36%

EV / cycle

+$578

If assigned

-$258,850

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.65/share ($3,229 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $48.50.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.00	6d	+$0.12	$0.09 to $0.13	66%	51%
Up And Out	$48.19	6d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.01	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$54.69	43d	+$0.05	$-0.21 to $0.08	87%	85%
Safety Up	$56.69	43d	-$0.18	$-0.48 to $-0.15	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$53.69	43d	+$0.22	$-0.01 to $0.26	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $50 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $252,000 (premium included).

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $50 CALL

14 Oct 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.10 / mid $0.11 · $500 this cycle

6.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$2,500

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$328

If assigned

-$252,000

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.78/share ($3,917 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $50.02.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$49.50	7d	+$0.10	$0.08 to $0.12	67%	51%
Ss Escape	$56.19	43d	+$0.04	$-0.13 to $0.22	86%	84%
Reliable Up	$55.19	43d	+$0.22	$0.08 to $0.41	84%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $47 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $262,500 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $47 CALL

13 Oct 2026 · 5 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.52 · $2,500 this cycle

1.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$15,000

Annualized

79%

EV / cycle

+$852

If assigned

-$262,500

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($3,071 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 2 at spot $47.53.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$47.00	6d	+$0.12	$0.08 to $0.11	66%	51%
Up And Out	$47.19	6d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $-0.01	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$52.69	43d	+$0.15	$-0.17 to $0.07	85%	83%
Safety Up	$54.69	43d	-$0.13	$-0.51 to $-0.23	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$51.69	43d	+$0.34	$0.05 to $0.27	83%	79%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $239,150 (premium included).

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.67 / mid $0.69 · $3,350 this cycle

11.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$2,792

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,637

If assigned

-$239,150

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.18/share ($10,915 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $52.11.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$51.50	43d	+$0.35	$0.30 to $0.47	68%	52%
Up And Out	$52.19	43d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.09	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$52.19	43d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.09	70%	57%
Safety Up	$53.19	43d	-$0.40	$-0.52 to $-0.35	73%	63%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Strike $52 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $237,050 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $52 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.59 / mid $0.60 · $2,950 this cycle

12.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$2,458

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,516

If assigned

-$237,050

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $2.23/share ($11,155 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 20 at spot $52.61.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$52.00	43d	+$0.36	$0.31 to $0.49	68%	52%
Up And Out	$52.69	43d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.11	70%	57%
Ss Escape	$52.69	43d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.11	70%	57%
Safety Up	$53.69	43d	-$0.40	$-0.51 to $-0.34	73%	63%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $48 is BELOW your $100.00 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $250,300 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 50 × $48 CALL

13 Nov 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $1.44 / mid $1.46 · $7,200 this cycle

4.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

32%

EV / cycle

+$2,467

If assigned

-$250,300

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.91/share ($9,531 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $49.10.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$48.50	43d	+$0.31	$0.23 to $0.29	68%	52%
Ss Escape	$48.19	43d	+$0.47	$0.39 to $0.46	67%	50%
Safety Up	$54.19	43d	-$1.43	$-1.88 to $-1.63	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-10-08 21:47 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.