MARA @ $11.90

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-19.3%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds5%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle

34.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

95%

Income / mo

$1,333

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$260

If assigned

+$12,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.93/share ($9,265 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $16.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	16d	+$0.23	$0.27 to $0.51	67%	54%
Up And Out	$16.09	16d	+$0.18	$0.21 to $0.45	68%	55%
Ss Escape	$20.09	44d	+$0.18	$0.21 to $0.53	82%	79%
Safety Up	$21.09	44d	-$0.01	$-0.00 to $0.34	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,024 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.15 / mid $0.17 · $1,500 this cycle

17.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$5,000

Annualized

51%

EV / cycle

+$657

If assigned

-$6,024

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,487 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $14.38.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	16d	+$0.19	$0.10 to $0.32	67%	54%
Up And Out	$14.10	16d	+$0.14	$0.05 to $0.26	67%	55%
Ss Escape	$17.09	44d	+$0.15	$0.00 to $0.29	81%	77%
Safety Up	$18.09	44d	-$0.02	$-0.18 to $0.12	85%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $12 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $17,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $12 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 9 DTE · bid $0.48 / mid $0.52 · $4,800 this cycle

5.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$16,000

Annualized

164%

EV / cycle

+$1,622

If assigned

-$17,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,270 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $12.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$12.50	16d	+$0.16	$0.01 to $0.11	67%	54%
Up And Out	$12.60	16d	+$0.11	$-0.05 to $0.05	67%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.60	44d	+$0.01	$-0.26 to $-0.08	83%	80%
Safety Up	$18.59	44d	-$0.35	$-0.71 to $-0.48	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$14.60	44d	+$0.27	$0.05 to $0.19	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.40 / mid $0.45 · $4,000 this cycle

26.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$4,000

Annualized

41%

EV / cycle

+$1,854

If assigned

+$6,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.63/share ($16,306 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 16 at spot $15.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	37d	-$0.13	$-0.30 to $-0.03	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$15.10	44d	+$0.14	$-0.03 to $0.28	70%	57%
Safety Up	$16.09	44d	-$0.23	$-0.42 to $-0.12	74%	65%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 44 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.24 · $2,000 this cycle

59.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,364

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,123

If assigned

+$44,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds32%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 30 DTE · bid $0.62 / mid $0.79 · $6,200 this cycle

13.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

68%

Income / mo

$6,200

Annualized

63%

EV / cycle

+$1,539

If assigned

-$6,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.38/share ($13,804 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 11 at spot $13.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	37d	-$0.11	$-0.32 to $-0.15	69%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.60	44d	+$0.12	$-0.10 to $0.08	70%	57%
Safety Up	$15.60	44d	-$0.55	$-0.83 to $-0.63	80%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-08 21:36 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.