MARA @ $12.77

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-13.5%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.16 / mid $0.18 · $1,600 this cycle

17.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$4,800

Annualized

46%

EV / cycle

+$668

If assigned

+$4,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.77/share ($7,730 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $15.44.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	17d	+$0.26	$0.20 to $0.38	67%	54%
Up And Out	$15.23	17d	+$0.17	$0.10 to $0.27	69%	57%
Ss Escape	$19.23	45d	+$0.02	$-0.15 to $0.14	84%	81%
Reliable Up	$18.23	45d	+$0.18	$0.03 to $0.30	81%	77%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.05 / mid $0.07 · $500 this cycle

33.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$317

If assigned

+$22,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.94/share ($9,421 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 8 at spot $17.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	17d	+$0.32	$0.38 to $0.55	68%	54%
Up And Out	$17.23	17d	+$0.23	$0.27 to $0.44	69%	57%
Ss Escape	$21.23	45d	+$0.22	$0.21 to $0.47	82%	78%
Safety Up	$22.23	45d	-$0.01	$-0.03 to $0.24	84%	82%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $7,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 10 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.53 · $5,000 this cycle

5.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$15,000

Annualized

143%

EV / cycle

+$1,445

If assigned

-$7,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.66/share ($6,563 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	17d	+$0.22	$0.12 to $0.21	67%	54%
Up And Out	$13.73	17d	+$0.13	$0.02 to $0.10	69%	57%
Ss Escape	$16.73	45d	+$0.04	$-0.19 to $-0.02	83%	79%
Safety Up	$20.73	45d	-$0.37	$-0.70 to $-0.47	93%	92%
Reliable Up	$15.73	45d	+$0.28	$0.09 to $0.23	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 45 DTE · bid $0.53 / mid $0.57 · $5,300 this cycle

33.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$3,533

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$2,326

If assigned

+$27,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 45 DTE · bid $0.27 / mid $0.29 · $2,700 this cycle

56.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,800

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$1,654

If assigned

+$55,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,576 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

7 Aug 2026 · 31 DTE · bid $0.91 / mid $1.01 · $9,100 this cycle

9.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$8,806

Annualized

84%

EV / cycle

+$2,849

If assigned

+$1,576

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.43/share ($14,315 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 9 at spot $14.41.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	38d	-$0.51	$-0.92 to $-0.68	65%	55%
Ss Escape	$14.23	45d	+$0.03	$-0.23 to $-0.08	71%	58%
Safety Up	$17.23	45d	-$0.87	$-1.28 to $-1.05	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-07 21:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.