MARA @ $12.02

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-18.6%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

24 Jul 2026 · 15 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle

41.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,200

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$465

If assigned

+$23,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.17/share ($11,693 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $17.49.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	22d	+$0.36	$0.40 to $0.60	69%	54%
Up And Out	$17.48	22d	+$0.08	$0.10 to $0.31	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$20.98	43d	+$0.01	$0.01 to $0.34	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,524 (premium included).

Called-away odds20%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.22 · $2,000 this cycle

12.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

80%

Income / mo

$7,500

Annualized

76%

EV / cycle

+$1,004

If assigned

-$10,524

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($6,127 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $13.88.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	15d	+$0.32	$0.26 to $0.38	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.98	15d	+$0.11	$0.03 to $0.15	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$17.48	43d	+$0.02	$-0.17 to $0.05	85%	83%
Safety Up	$18.48	43d	-$0.13	$-0.34 to $-0.10	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$16.48	43d	+$0.21	$0.06 to $0.26	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $14,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds28%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.32 / mid $0.33 · $3,200 this cycle

8.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

72%

Income / mo

$12,000

Annualized

122%

EV / cycle

+$1,386

If assigned

-$14,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,774 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $13.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	15d	+$0.30	$0.22 to $0.33	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.48	15d	+$0.09	$-0.00 to $0.09	73%	62%
Ss Escape	$15.98	43d	+$0.16	$-0.02 to $0.15	83%	79%
Safety Up	$18.98	43d	-$0.25	$-0.51 to $-0.29	91%	90%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.49 · $4,700 this cycle

33.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,279

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$2,251

If assigned

+$17,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $19 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.23 · $2,200 this cycle

58.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,535

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,411

If assigned

+$44,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $5,224 (premium included).

Called-away odds34%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 36 DTE · bid $0.73 / mid $0.85 · $7,300 this cycle

12.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

66%

Income / mo

$6,083

Annualized

62%

EV / cycle

+$1,623

If assigned

-$5,224

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.29/share ($12,937 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 12 at spot $13.87.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	43d	+$0.12	$0.03 to $0.09	70%	55%
Ss Escape	$13.48	43d	+$0.13	$0.03 to $0.10	70%	55%
Safety Up	$15.48	43d	-$0.57	$-0.75 to $-0.65	80%	75%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-09 03:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.