MARA @ $12.72

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-13.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.06 / mid $0.07 · $600 this cycle

25.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$2,250

Annualized

22%

EV / cycle

+$416

If assigned

+$13,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.75/share ($7,506 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $16.42.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	15d	+$0.35	$0.37 to $0.55	68%	54%
Up And Out	$16.77	15d	+$0.02	$-0.01 to $0.17	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$20.27	43d	+$0.15	$0.09 to $0.37	83%	80%
Safety Up	$21.27	43d	-$0.05	$-0.13 to $0.15	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $824 (premium included).

Called-away odds17%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

13.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

83%

Income / mo

$6,375

Annualized

61%

EV / cycle

+$798

If assigned

-$824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($6,429 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.90.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	15d	+$0.30	$0.25 to $0.39	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.78	15d	+$0.17	$0.10 to $0.25	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$18.77	43d	+$0.01	$-0.14 to $0.09	85%	83%
Safety Up	$19.77	43d	-$0.15	$-0.34 to $-0.08	88%	86%
Reliable Up	$17.77	43d	+$0.21	$0.09 to $0.31	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $8,624 (premium included).

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 8 DTE · bid $0.39 / mid $0.41 · $3,900 this cycle

6.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$14,625

Annualized

140%

EV / cycle

+$1,214

If assigned

-$8,624

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.58/share ($5,755 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.89.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	15d	+$0.27	$0.18 to $0.27	67%	53%
Up And Out	$13.78	15d	+$0.14	$0.04 to $0.13	70%	58%
Ss Escape	$16.77	43d	+$0.12	$-0.09 to $0.07	83%	80%
Safety Up	$19.77	43d	-$0.28	$-0.58 to $-0.36	91%	91%
Reliable Up	$15.78	43d	+$0.31	$0.14 to $0.28	79%	74%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and incomeRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds31%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.83 / mid $0.89 · $8,300 this cycle

17.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

69%

Income / mo

$5,791

Annualized

55%

EV / cycle

+$2,669

If assigned

+$10,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.25 · $2,200 this cycle

57.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,535

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$1,282

If assigned

+$54,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 43 DTE · bid $0.47 / mid $0.50 · $4,700 this cycle

33.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,279

Annualized

31%

EV / cycle

+$2,059

If assigned

+$27,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-09 21:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.