MARA @ $13.36

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-9.5%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $2,000 this cycle

12.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$8,571

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$1,120

If assigned

+$4,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.63/share ($6,319 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $15.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	14d	+$0.38	$0.33 to $0.46	69%	53%
Up And Out	$15.64	14d	+$0.09	$0.00 to $0.15	74%	63%
Ss Escape	$19.64	42d	+$0.06	$-0.12 to $0.12	86%	84%
Safety Up	$21.64	42d	-$0.17	$-0.38 to $-0.13	91%	89%
Reliable Up	$18.64	42d	+$0.22	$0.06 to $0.29	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.04 · $400 this cycle

27.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,714

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$316

If assigned

+$22,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.77/share ($7,718 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $17.52.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	14d	+$0.46	$0.49 to $0.67	69%	53%
Up And Out	$18.14	14d	+$0.01	$-0.05 to $0.20	76%	68%
Ss Escape	$22.64	42d	+$0.09	$0.00 to $0.36	86%	84%
Safety Up	$23.64	42d	-$0.01	$-0.10 to $0.26	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds35%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.44 / mid $0.45 · $4,400 this cycle

4.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

65%

Income / mo

$18,857

Annualized

172%

EV / cycle

+$1,604

If assigned

-$3,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.57/share ($5,668 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $14.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	14d	+$0.34	$0.26 to $0.34	69%	53%
Up And Out	$14.64	14d	+$0.06	$-0.08 to $0.03	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$17.64	42d	+$0.12	$-0.12 to $0.06	84%	81%
Safety Up	$20.64	42d	-$0.22	$-0.55 to $-0.32	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$16.64	42d	+$0.32	$0.12 to $0.28	81%	76%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and incomeRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $1.12 / mid $1.15 · $11,200 this cycle

12.3%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$8,000

Annualized

73%

EV / cycle

+$3,532

If assigned

+$13,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $21 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.22 / mid $0.26 · $2,200 this cycle

57.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,571

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,297

If assigned

+$64,676

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.51 / mid $0.53 · $5,100 this cycle

34.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,643

Annualized

33%

EV / cycle

+$2,519

If assigned

+$37,576

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-10 03:39 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.