MARA @ $13.37

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-9.4%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.17 / mid $0.18 · $1,700 this cycle

12.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$7,286

Annualized

66%

EV / cycle

+$787

If assigned

+$4,176

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.54/share ($5,446 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $15.45.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	14d	+$0.38	$0.36 to $0.45	67%	53%
Up And Out	$15.63	14d	+$0.13	$0.07 to $0.17	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$19.63	42d	+$0.08	$-0.07 to $0.11	86%	84%
Safety Up	$20.63	42d	-$0.04	$-0.22 to $-0.01	88%	87%
Reliable Up	$18.63	42d	+$0.25	$0.13 to $0.31	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.04 / mid $0.05 · $400 this cycle

27.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,714

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$339

If assigned

+$22,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.66/share ($6,629 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $17.54.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	14d	+$0.46	$0.49 to $0.63	67%	54%
Up And Out	$18.13	14d	+$0.03	$-0.00 to $0.17	75%	68%
Ss Escape	$22.63	42d	+$0.13	$0.07 to $0.33	86%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,724 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.38 / mid $0.40 · $3,800 this cycle

4.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$16,286

Annualized

148%

EV / cycle

+$964

If assigned

-$3,724

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.49/share ($4,895 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $14.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	14d	+$0.34	$0.29 to $0.35	67%	53%
Up And Out	$14.63	14d	+$0.09	$0.00 to $0.07	73%	64%
Ss Escape	$17.63	35d	+$0.03	$-0.18 to $-0.03	85%	82%
Safety Up	$20.63	42d	-$0.22	$-0.52 to $-0.31	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$17.63	42d	+$0.15	$-0.03 to $0.10	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and incomeRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $1.06 / mid $1.09 · $10,600 this cycle

12.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$7,571

Annualized

69%

EV / cycle

+$2,911

If assigned

+$13,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $21 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.24 · $2,000 this cycle

57.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,429

Annualized

13%

EV / cycle

+$1,101

If assigned

+$64,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.46 / mid $0.49 · $4,600 this cycle

34.6%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,286

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$2,019

If assigned

+$37,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-10 11:41 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.