MARA @ $13.03

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-11.7%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

15.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

56%

EV / cycle

+$733

If assigned

+$3,876

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.64/share ($6,378 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $15.43.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$15.00	14d	+$0.37	$0.33 to $0.50	68%	53%
Up And Out	$15.47	14d	+$0.15	$0.07 to $0.23	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$19.97	42d	+$0.01	$-0.17 to $0.10	87%	85%
Safety Up	$20.97	42d	-$0.12	$-0.32 to $-0.03	89%	88%
Reliable Up	$18.97	42d	+$0.14	$-0.02 to $0.24	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds4%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

30.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

96%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$223

If assigned

+$22,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.78/share ($7,779 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 6 at spot $17.50.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	14d	+$0.46	$0.52 to $0.66	69%	54%
Up And Out	$17.97	14d	+$0.03	$0.01 to $0.19	74%	66%
Ss Escape	$22.97	42d	+$0.05	$0.00 to $0.27	86%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $4,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds29%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.32 / mid $0.33 · $3,200 this cycle

7.4%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

71%

Income / mo

$13,714

Annualized

128%

EV / cycle

+$1,164

If assigned

-$4,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.57/share ($5,726 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $14.40.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	14d	+$0.33	$0.26 to $0.35	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.47	14d	+$0.12	$0.01 to $0.11	72%	61%
Ss Escape	$17.97	42d	+$0.05	$-0.18 to $0.02	85%	83%
Safety Up	$19.97	42d	-$0.18	$-0.46 to $-0.23	90%	89%
Reliable Up	$16.97	42d	+$0.26	$0.08 to $0.25	82%	78%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and incomeRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds33%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $15 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.98 / mid $1.03 · $9,800 this cycle

15.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

67%

Income / mo

$7,000

Annualized

65%

EV / cycle

+$3,280

If assigned

+$12,276

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds10%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.26 / mid $0.30 · $2,600 this cycle

53.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

90%

Income / mo

$1,857

Annualized

17%

EV / cycle

+$1,557

If assigned

+$55,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $18 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.47 · $4,300 this cycle

38.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$3,071

Annualized

29%

EV / cycle

+$2,167

If assigned

+$36,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-10 21:49 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.