MARA @ $12.64

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-14.3%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

34.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,286

Annualized

12%

EV / cycle

+$241

If assigned

+$22,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.78/share ($7,765 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$17.00	14d	+$0.45	-	69%	54%
Up And Out	$17.86	14d	+$0.12	-	74%	64%
Ss Escape	$23.36	42d	+$0.07	-	87%	85%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $1,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

14.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$6,000

Annualized

58%

EV / cycle

+$781

If assigned

-$1,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.60/share ($6,009 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 5 at spot $14.91.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.50	14d	+$0.35	$0.31 to $0.45	68%	53%
Up And Out	$15.36	14d	+$0.02	$-0.07 to $0.08	75%	67%
Ss Escape	$18.86	42d	+$0.13	$-0.02 to $0.22	86%	83%
Safety Up	$19.86	42d	-$0.04	$-0.21 to $0.05	88%	86%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $9,324 (premium included).

Called-away odds30%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 7 DTE · bid $0.32 / mid $0.33 · $3,200 this cycle

6.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

70%

Income / mo

$13,714

Annualized

132%

EV / cycle

+$1,226

If assigned

-$9,324

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.54/share ($5,365 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.88.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	14d	+$0.31	$0.24 to $0.33	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.86	14d	+$0.18	$0.09 to $0.18	72%	60%
Ss Escape	$17.86	42d	+$0.03	$-0.18 to $-0.00	87%	85%
Safety Up	$19.86	42d	-$0.20	$-0.47 to $-0.24	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$16.86	42d	+$0.19	$0.01 to $0.17	84%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $17 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.50 / mid $0.52 · $5,000 this cycle

34.5%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,571

Annualized

34%

EV / cycle

+$2,502

If assigned

+$27,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds9%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $0.23 / mid $0.26 · $2,300 this cycle

58.2%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

91%

Income / mo

$1,643

Annualized

16%

EV / cycle

+$1,437

If assigned

+$54,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,776 (premium included).

Called-away odds38%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 42 DTE · bid $1.13 / mid $1.15 · $11,300 this cycle

10.8%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

62%

Income / mo

$8,071

Annualized

78%

EV / cycle

+$3,105

If assigned

+$3,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-10 22:06 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.