MARA @ $12.51

DEEP DRAWDOWN

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-15.2%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Deep drawdown. Earn income while the position recovers without capping the rebound. The safest rung that still clears the income floor is recommended; Ultra Safe goes deeper OTM for the lowest called-away odds when you want maximum room above your $14.75 basis.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

27.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

15%

EV / cycle

+$260

If assigned

+$12,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.61/share ($6,115 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	13d	+$0.44	-	68%	53%
Up And Out	$16.99	13d	+$0.07	-	75%	67%
Ss Escape	$23.49	41d	+$0.04	-	92%	90%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds15%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

12.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

85%

Income / mo

$7,000

Annualized

68%

EV / cycle

+$839

If assigned

-$6,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.49/share ($4,905 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.36.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	13d	+$0.36	$0.32 to $0.44	68%	53%
Up And Out	$14.49	13d	+$0.16	$0.09 to $0.21	72%	62%
Ss Escape	$18.49	41d	+$0.11	$-0.02 to $0.17	87%	85%
Safety Up	$19.49	41d	-$0.02	$-0.17 to $0.04	90%	89%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $13 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $13,824 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $13 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.37 / mid $0.38 · $3,700 this cycle

4.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$18,500

Annualized

180%

EV / cycle

+$1,433

If assigned

-$13,824

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.43/share ($4,348 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.35.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.00	13d	+$0.32	$0.25 to $0.31	68%	53%
Up And Out	$13.49	13d	+$0.12	$0.01 to $0.09	73%	63%
Ss Escape	$17.49	41d	+$0.02	$-0.21 to $-0.04	89%	87%
Safety Up	$18.49	41d	-$0.10	$-0.35 to $-0.17	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$16.49	41d	+$0.16	$-0.03 to $0.11	86%	83%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds19%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 34 DTE · bid $0.43 / mid $0.47 · $4,300 this cycle

27.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

81%

Income / mo

$3,794

Annualized

37%

EV / cycle

+$2,180

If assigned

+$16,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.56/share ($15,552 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 18 at spot $16.47.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	41d	+$0.24	$0.19 to $0.33	70%	55%
Up And Out	$16.49	41d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.08	72%	60%
Ss Escape	$16.49	41d	+$0.02	$-0.05 to $0.08	72%	60%
Safety Up	$17.49	41d	-$0.34	$-0.43 to $-0.31	76%	68%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds6%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 41 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.21 · $2,000 this cycle

59.9%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

94%

Income / mo

$1,463

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,598

If assigned

+$54,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $2,776 (premium included).

Called-away odds36%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 41 DTE · bid $1.03 / mid $1.04 · $10,300 this cycle

12.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

64%

Income / mo

$7,537

Annualized

73%

EV / cycle

+$3,543

If assigned

+$2,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-11 03:40 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.