MARA @ $12.60

SHALLOW UNDERWATER

Covered-call income plan ⌂ Portfolio

AccountU10001299

Shares10,000

Avg cost$14.75

Drawdown-14.6%

IV regimeHIGH

Writable100

Shallow drawdown. A normal covered call is reasonable; keep the strike at or above your $14.75 basis so assignment cannot lock a loss.

Income playbook

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away oddsRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds3%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.03 / mid $0.04 · $300 this cycle

27.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

97%

Income / mo

$1,500

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$260

If assigned

+$12,776

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.59/share ($5,932 total).

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.00	13d	+$0.45	-	67%	53%
Up And Out	$16.90	13d	+$0.10	-	75%	66%
Ss Escape	$21.40	41d	+$0.14	-	86%	84%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTM▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $6,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds16%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.14 / mid $0.15 · $1,400 this cycle

11.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

84%

Income / mo

$7,000

Annualized

68%

EV / cycle

+$806

If assigned

-$6,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.48/share ($4,756 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 4 at spot $14.35.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$14.00	13d	+$0.37	$0.32 to $0.44	67%	53%
Up And Out	$14.90	13d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.06	76%	69%
Ss Escape	$18.40	41d	+$0.05	$-0.11 to $0.10	86%	84%
Safety Up	$19.40	41d	-$0.03	$-0.19 to $0.02	89%	88%
Reliable Up	$17.40	41d	+$0.26	$0.14 to $0.32	83%	80%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $10,124 (premium included).

Called-away odds26%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

17 Jul 2026 · 6 DTE · bid $0.24 / mid $0.25 · $2,400 this cycle

7.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

74%

Income / mo

$12,000

Annualized

116%

EV / cycle

+$1,126

If assigned

-$10,124

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $0.45/share ($4,482 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 3 at spot $13.83.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$13.50	13d	+$0.35	$0.29 to $0.38	67%	53%
Up And Out	$14.40	13d	+$0.00	$-0.10 to $-0.00	77%	70%
Ss Escape	$17.90	41d	+$0.01	$-0.18 to $-0.00	87%	85%
Safety Up	$19.90	41d	-$0.19	$-0.43 to $-0.22	92%	91%
Reliable Up	$16.90	41d	+$0.21	$0.05 to $0.20	84%	81%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

ConservativeSafe, deep OTMRECOMMENDED▾

Called-away odds18%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $16 CALL

14 Aug 2026 · 34 DTE · bid $0.35 / mid $0.41 · $3,500 this cycle

31.0%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

82%

Income / mo

$3,088

Annualized

30%

EV / cycle

+$1,269

If assigned

+$20,976

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

If challenged near half-life, buying the call back costs about $1.66/share ($16,613 total). Monte-Carlo central case: challenged near day 19 at spot $16.97.

Door	New strike	Tenor	Est credit/sh	P25-P75	POP	Survival
Credit Out	$16.50	41d	+$0.19	$0.12 to $0.29	70%	55%
Up And Out	$16.90	41d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.10	71%	59%
Ss Escape	$16.90	41d	+$0.02	$-0.06 to $0.10	71%	59%

Priced from today's chain via the shared anchor + Black-Scholes engine. POP = stays below breakeven; Survival = stays below the new strike.

Ultra SafeDeepest OTM, lowest called-away odds▾

Called-away odds8%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $20 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 41 DTE · bid $0.20 / mid $0.23 · $2,000 this cycle

58.7%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

92%

Income / mo

$1,463

Annualized

14%

EV / cycle

+$1,304

If assigned

+$54,476

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

NormalBalanced risk and income▾

Strike $14 is BELOW your $14.75 cost basis. If called away this locks a realized loss of about $3,076 (premium included).

Called-away odds37%

SaferRiskier

SELL 100 × $14 CALL

21 Aug 2026 · 41 DTE · bid $1.06 / mid $1.08 · $10,600 this cycle

11.1%
OTM

Survival (OTM)

63%

Income / mo

$7,756

Annualized

75%

EV / cycle

+$3,349

If assigned

+$3,076

If challenged: pre-priced escape map

No pre-priced escape map: the near-term chain is too sparse to anchor an honest buyback.

stock_fight.py · generated 2026-07-11 13:40 · read-only, advisory. Places no orders.